UK Politics / Paul Krishnamurty / 07 August 2008 / Leave a comment

Gordon Brown finds himself on extremely thin ice after a series of high profile blunders have blighted his reign as PM. Paul Krishnamurty looks at his chances of making the next General Election, and who might take over were he to be forced out?

Contrary to some suggestions, the summer recess is unlikely to cool the panicked atmosphere amongst Labour MPs fearing for their careers. After the catastrophic Glasgow-East by-election defeat, a series of appalling opinion polls, and Foreign Secretary David Miliband's veiled challenge, Gordon Brown's position as PM hangs by a thread. Judging by the comments of people across the Labour spectrum, there seems a consensus that Brown's position is almost untenable.

This view seems to be shared by punters, with Oct - Dec 2008 hitting a low of [3.0] to become favourite as Brown's most likely exit date. Another measure of the lack of confidence in Brown's ability to survive through till the next election is that Tory leader David Cameron is trading around [2.8] to be 'Next PM', despite his party being [1.33] to win the most seats in that election.

It may not be quite that simple though. Firstly, Brown will surely get at least one last chance in the form of his 'autumn relaunch' leading up to his showpiece speech to the Labour Party Conference on 21st September. Beforehand, expect to see an 'economic recovery plan' focussed on the housing market and perhaps a Cabinet reshuffle in a last ditch bid to turn things around. Brown needs the polls to respond favourably to these measures and then produce the speech of his life.

Never underestimate the importance of a leader's conference speech - they can make or break careers and change the political weather. The Conservatives dumped Iain Duncan Smith after a particularly lacklustre performance in 2003, while David Cameron turned his own and his party's fortunes around last year with a widely-praised effort.

The problem for Brown is that nobody believes he is capable of such a speech. When he steps up to the podium, there will inevitably have been weeks of fevered speculation about his future, no doubt fuelled by his enemies and rivals. Its hard to see what rabbit Brown can pull out of the hat to change his doomed narrative, especially with his dwindling band of allies increasingly unwilling to forcefully defend him on camera.

Brown's last realistic hope is that Labour MPs can't find a way to overcome their cumbersome internal party rules. There are three ways of removing Brown against his will. Firstly, 20% of Labour MPs need to back a named challenger to force a leadership contest. If such a vote were called, Brown would surely resign rather than fight. However, getting 70 MPs to unite around a candidate and then publicly challenge Brown is no straightforward task.

Secondly, the unions could force a confidence vote at the conference. I find this scenario the least likely, because the unions will not wanted to be seen as wielding illegitimate power. And they would be happier with a weak, compliant Brown in charge than a potentially hostile replacement like Miliband. Thirdly, and most likely, is that a convoy of senior ministers go to Brown and tell him they've lost confidence, which would effectively force him to go. That way, no single Minister can be solely accused of wielding the knife.

None of these routes are without flaws however, and it is plausible this could drag on into 2009. One fear amongst MPs could be that, should they replace Brown, they would probably have to hold a snap election long before the end of their term in May 2010. With Labour unlikely to survive even under a new leader, for many this would be a fast-track to the job centre.

If it does drag on, then the most convenient time to change leader could be the latter half of 2009. This way, Brown would take the hit of a likely thrashing in May's European elections, and a new leader could either be decided or unveiled at next year's conference, with the election held as planned in the spring of 2010. Jul - Sep 2009 and Oct - Dec 2009 rate decent value at [9.8] and [7.6] respectively.

As for who replaces Brown as 'Next PM', if it isn't to be Cameron then I can only see five realistic candidates in the Labour ranks. David Miliband looks a solid bet at [4.0], as he is now firmly positioned as the best-known alternative and representative of the Blairite faction within the party. He would start clear favourite in any leadership contest.

The unions, who make up a third of Labour's electoral college, won't let Miliband have it all his own way though. They are frantically trying to find a centre-left candidate, as are dozens of Labour MPs sick to the stomach of the 'New Labour' legacy and wanting a new direction. Their favourite would be Jon Cruddas, currently an outsider at [30.0], though he would still face a tough task convincing people that he could take over as PM without any Cabinet experience.

More likely is that Cruddas plays kingmaker and backs Labour deputy Harriet Harman, as he did when advising his supporters to give her their second preference votes in the deputy contest. Harman, an [8.6] chance, has already proved she can win over the internal Labour electorate, and would have little to gain from backing Miliband. Her supporters will argue that only a female leader could change the current political narrative. My view is she will run in any leadership contest, which would make her current odds excellent value in what would be no more than a three-runner contest.

Others worth a mention include Jack Straw and Alan Johnson, currently [6.8] and [8.2] respectively. Straw could emerge as a 'unity' candidate, and is seen as a safe pair of hands. However, its hard to see why this New Labour veteran would be a superior leader to Brown and I'd be surprised if he could convince the party otherwise.

Former postman and moderate union leader Johnson would have a great chance if he wanted the job, as he is liked across the party and seen as the most electable. The problem is he shows no sign of wanting the job, and is more likely in my view to back Miliband.

Tags: Alan Johnson, David Cameron, David Miliband, Gordon Brown, Harriet Harman, Jack Straw, Jon Cruddas, Next Labour Leader, Next Prime Minister, Politics Betting