Next Labour Leader Betting: The leading contenders' odds rundown

UK Politics / Paul Krishnamurty / 19 August 2009 / Leave a Comment

Harriet Harman is a leading contender for the Labour leadership once Gordon Brown moves on

"As possibly the only woman in the contest, Harriet Harman has a strong base of female MPs and members who think its high time the party were led a woman. Secondly, Harman is one of the very few Labour MPs in a safe enough seat to survive an increasingly plausible wipe-out."

With the next General Election looking almost certain to produce a Tory government, the race could soon be on to replace Gordon Brown as leader of the Labour Party. Paul Krishnamurty weighs up the five leading contenders and a very dark horse.

Alan Johnson

The Home Secretary is seen in Westminster circles as affable, down to earth and a 'safe pair of hands', a combination that has led many to believe he would rate the party's best hope. When Gordon Brown's position came under threat recently, Johnson was hot favourite to succeed him. As a former postman and trade union leader turned Blairite moderniser, the Hull West MP is arguably the candidate best placed to unite the party's various factions.

However, its by no means certain that he really covets the job, as illustrated by his loyal support for Brown when the premiership was within his grasp. That may turn out to have been his best ever chance, as his failure to support the insurgency alienated many potential Blairite backers, who may now look elsewhere if the position becomes available after the next election.

Nor can his supposedly wide support base be taken for granted. After all, Johnson was beaten to the deputy post by Harriet Harman.

Verdict: Well worth taking on at a short price


Harriet Harman

Labour's current deputy has a vitriolic relationship with most of the press, and will undoubtedly be presented as an electoral disaster waiting to happen by certain commentators. That shouldn't, however, make much of a difference to her chances of becoming the party's next leader. Rather than being decided by the press or the wider voting public, this contest will be decided by Labour's tripartite electoral college system, made up of MPs, party members and trade unionists.

Unlike any of her rivals, Harman has already shown she has enough support to win via that electoral college by beating five others for the deputy's post. She has a long history of activism within the labour movement, and it can only help that her husband is the respected leading trade unionist Jack Dromey. She could well be the most left-wing candidate on the ballot paper at a time when the party wants to move back towards its socialist roots.

Two more factors favour Harman. As possibly the only woman in the contest, she has a strong base of female MPs and members who think its high time the party were led a woman. Secondly, Harman is one of the very few Labour MPs in a safe enough seat to survive an increasingly plausible wipe-out.

Verdict: A very strong contender, especially if the party loses badly, therefore eliminating potential challengers.


David Miliband

Along with Harman, the man apparently supported by Tony Blair is one of the few plausible candidates guaranteed to be in parliament after the next election. So while his reputation has gone backwards since its peak last year, Miliband is still well placed to lead the challenge from the 'modernising' wing of the party.

In order to win, he will need to overcome the suspicions of probably over half this electorate that he is 'too Blairite'. This analysis, which sets two wings of 'traditionalist left' versus 'Blarite moderniser' against one another, is too superficial though. In reality, there are radical voices amongst both modernisers and the Left that find more common cause than is often reported. For instance Jon Cruddas, the closest the Left have to a 'leader', has spoken warmly of Miliband's arch-ally James Purnell.

Miliband has been smart enough not to fully define his politics, and is capable of building bridges. He is a good media performer, and I expect various polls during any leadership campaign will confirm this. Never underestimate the importance of media performance. In the last Tory leadership contest, David Cameron started out as an outsider, written off as 'too liberal' for his party, until one Newsnight focus group gave a huge thumbs up to his conference speech. Once the party realised he could be a winner, concerns about his ideological purity were soon forgotten.

Verdict: A good chance so long as he builds bridges and soothes concerns from the Left.


Jon Cruddas

Cruddas has never been in the cabinet, and that could prove to be a massive asset if this very unpopular government takes a hammering. That was the case when he surprised pundits with a strong showing in the deputy contest, having started the campaign as a virtual unknown. Back then, he asked his supporters to give their second preference to Harman, which ultimately proved decisive. If they both participate in the leadership contest, the favour could well be returned.

That good performance in the deputy contest was less of a surprise to seasoned Labour-watchers. Cruddas is the leading voice of the increasingly influential group of MPs allied to the Compass think-tank. Their critical analysis of the 'New' Labour years is shared by many members, unions and supporters, and its likely that a post-Brown party will adopt much of their policy agenda. Furthermore, the candidate that represents the Left will be able to draw upon significant support from the unions, in both financial and electoral terms.

There is one crucial snag though. Cruddas' Dagenham and Rainham seat has been redrawn after boundary changes, and would be vulnerable to a substantial Tory swing.

Verdict: If retaining his seat, Cruddas is the party's future.


Ed Balls

Gordon Brown's right-hand man is known to fancy his chances, and as the holder of a safe seat appears certain to enter the contest. I suspect he has delusions of grandeur. It would be a strange twist of fate for a defeated party to elect a man so closely associated with the Brown years, which one would assume they would be desperate to distance themselves from.

Moreover, Balls has the image of an abrasive character who makes more than his share of enemies. Indeed, it was widely reported that Brown failed to install Balls as Chancellor because such an appointment would have proved too divisive, costing the PM his job.

Verdict: Needs to dramatically improve his standing with colleagues to stand a chance.


And now the dark horse!

Peter Mandelson

Maybe it's because we're in the silly season, or maybe it's just his famed ability to generate publicity, but Lord Mandelson has suddenly become the name on everyone's lips. Mandelson apparently heartened the Labour troops during his week in charge while Brown was on holiday, and took the opportunity to embark on some trademark rebranding, casting off his Prince of Darkness tag in favour of a softer pussycat.

It is reported that a safe seat awaits should the Business Secretary decide to return to the Commons, following a law change allowing life peers to stand. This idea looks a longshot at best, given his life peer status and ability to earn fortunes from directorships once outside government.

However, there is one, albeit highly unlikely, way he could become leader. If Brown were forced out before the election, it is possible that Mandelson take over on a short-term basis into the election. After all, he is at least the second most powerful man in government at the moment, and has been surprisingly successful in building bridges with former enemies.

Verdict: Given his history and ambition, nothing can be entirely ruled out, but don't bet on it.