UK Politics / Mike Robb / 01 May 2008 / Leave a comment

11AM BST: Boris Johnson is the hot favourite on Betfair to win London's Mayoral election today. At odds of [1.35] he now has a commanding lead over Ken Livingstone, who is [3.8].

This is as strong a favourite as Boris has been on Betfair since betting began and customers clearly think that when push comes to shove Johnson will have enough of the London public convinced to come out and vote for him.

What's more, Livingstone is odds-on to receive less than 36 percent of first choice votes as Betfair users paint a dreary picture for the incumbent. Conversely, Boris is [1.25] to receive more than 40% of first choice votes.

At [200.0], Lib Dem candidate Brian Paddick is given little chance of winning outright but there is no doubting that his first preference voters could play a key role in determining the outcome should neither Ken nor Boris receive more than 50 percent of first choice votes. Were the election to go to second preference votes you would predict the gap between the two to narrow significantly as Ken would be expected to take a large proportion of Paddick voters' second choice votes.

Betfair customers are showing strong support in the belief that Boris Johnson will win the election and the strength of this opinion is as strong as it has been since betting began. Voting only started at 7am this morning, however, and with the majority of votes still to be cast it's very much a case of watch this space.

Nevertheless, it is looking bleak for Ken at this stage and fair to say that Boris is in the driving seat.

Betfair Politics Zone

Tags: Boris Johnson, election odds, Ken Livingstone, London Mayoral election, politics betting, politics prediction