Glasgow North-East By-Election Odds: Can punters really rely on 1.25 Labour?

UK Politics / Paul Krishnamurty / 09 November 2009 / Leave a Comment

SNP leader Alex Salmond campaigns alongside local candidate David Kerr ahead of the Glasgow North-East By-Election

"Very few Labour seats looks entirely safe at the General Election, and history has repeatedly shown that upsets are much more likely in a by-election. Indeed, it was in the neighbouring seat of Glasgow East 16 months ago that Labour suffered arguably the worst result in the party's history"

Labour trade at just [1.25] to land the Glasgow-East by-election but a cocktail of factors make those odds look uncomfortably tight, Paul krishnamurty looks at the betting

The popular consensus is increasingly that, despite various plots and plenty of logical reason to remove him, the Labour Party are resigned to fighting next year's General Election under the leadership of Gordon Brown. If there is one remaining potential crisis that could yet trigger a leadership challenge, it could come on Thursday night via the form of the Glasgow North-East by-election.

Under any sort of normal circumstances, the only significance in this result would revolve around Labour's margin of victory, but as their awful poll ratings suggest, these are far from normal times. Very few Labour seats looks entirely safe at the General Election, and history has repeatedly shown that upsets are much more likely in a by-election. Indeed, it was in the neighbouring seat of Glasgow East 16 months ago that Labour suffered arguably the worst result in the party's history.

The similarities with that previous Glasgow contest are striking, particularly the deprived nature of both inner-city constituencies. Both were previously regarded amongst the very safest Labour seats in the UK; a place where it was barely worth their opponents devoting significant campaigning resources.

In both seats, as across much of Scotland, the main opposition is the SNP. When Alex Salmond's party landed that stunning upset, it was widely received as indicative of a wider trend across Scotland. Salmond maintained that rhetoric at his recent party conference by predicting the SNP could gain up to 20 seats; trebling its Westminster representation.

Yet despite the last result in Glasgow and such wider trends, Labour are a paltry [1.25] to win on Thursday. It's not as if there is much evidence to suggest Labour's position is any less bleak this time around, especially as the country remains in deep recession. In the July 2008 ICM Guardian poll, they scored 28%, one point higher than last month's tally. So can they really be trusted at [1.25]?

The main reason for the latest shift in the betting would appear to be a recent Scottish poll that suggested a swing from SNP to Labour in Westminster voting intentions, but that alone is hardly a water-tight argument to have a short odds-on bet. We've repeatedly seen that these mid-term polls are unreliable, especially when responses are not restricted to those who claim to be 'certain to vote'. Labour's greatest problem in Glasgow East was an inability to get its supporters out to vote. The party machine in the city has disintegrated, and doubtless they will be reduced to busing in their dwindling band of activists from elsewhere. In contrast, the SNP are notorious at maximising their own turnout at by-elections.

A further reason to treat that poll with scepticism is the fact that this isn't a General Election. Come next spring's main contest, it is quite possible that core Labour voters will return to the fold as they fear a Tory government. There is no such threat here though, with this by-election instead offering a chance to punish an unpopular government.

Furthermore, in comparison to Glasgow East, this constituency is slightly more vulnerable. Glasgow East was Labour's 324th safest seat, won with over 60% of the vote in 2005. Labour got 53% in Glasgow North-East, but the real level of support is hard to gauge accurately as their candidate was then Commons Speaker Michael Martin.

Traditionally, the Conservatives and Lib Dems don't put up candidates against the Speaker, and as Martin was a longstanding local representative, he probably held a strong personal vote which may drift away now to alternatives. Martin became the first ever Speaker to be removed as a consequence of the expenses scandal, so the local electorate will doubtless have had their fill of that particular controversy. Again, this is more likely to affect Labour adversely than any other party.

Twice already in this parliament, short-odds Labour backers have got their fingers badly burnt in by-elections. They were matched well below the current [1.25] quote for Glasgow East, and previously Labour had lost Dunfermline and West Fife to the Lib Dems having traded at [1.01] in-running. Don't make the same mistake; this one is no certainty either.