General Election Betting / The Betfair Contrarian / 31 July 2008 / Leave a comment

The Contrarian rarely troubles the infinite serenity of his mind with politics, not because of the interminable gasbaggery, but because the British biggies come round less frequently than World Cups. But even the dopiest of punters ought to do a massive double take when one of the runners in a two-horse race is priced as long as [6.4], as Labour are to win an outright majority at the next general election (the Tories are [1.71]).

While Labour should be congratulated on the impressive speed with which they have squandered their advantage over the detested Tories (according to the Telegraph this week, the Tories enjoy a devastating 24 point lead in key marginals), no organisation that can move at such velocity should ever be underestimated, which is why the Contrarian is all over Labour to win the next one.

Cameron thinks he has won already

In 1992, Labour Party leader Neil Kinnock took the ill-fated decision to organise the notorious Sheffield Rally, effectively an opportunity to indulge in some premature high-fiving in anticipation of election victory. Though holding a seemingly decisive lead, the negative reaction to Labour's 'victory' party contributed to Kinnock losing the general election (dancing in a Tracy Ullman video didn't help much either).
David Cameron may be heading down a similarly dangerous path, confidently declaring that "New Labour is dead". The Spectator has reported that he has already written his first Queen's speech. Another two years of such jubilant over-confidence should see Labour safely back at Number Ten.

Cameron is beginning to upset the voters

After two years of trying his hardest not to antagonise anyone, it appears that David Cameron has finally discarded the diplomatic approach. The Tory leader said that fat and poor people, as well as drug and alcohol addicts must start taking responsibility for their own problems: "We talk about people being 'at risk of obesity' instead of talking about people who eat too much and take too little exercise." It is fair to assume that the overweight and underprivileged will have been less than impressed with his stance and a few more forays into the world of honesty could harm Cameron's election prospects, especially as the "new" Tories have yet to explain exactly what they do stand for.

Midterm lapses are not always critical

John Major suffered several by-election defeats in the lead up to an ultimately successful 1992 general election, including the infamous Ribble Valley result. Regarded as a safe Conservative stronghold, the Tories' conceded the seat to the Liberal Democrats, seeing their share of the vote fall by a massive 24 percent. Between 1987 and 1992 the Conservatives lost seven seats as a result of by-elections but won the general election nonetheless. Labour should look at their crushing defeats in Crewe and Glasgow East through this same rosy viewing device.

The recession could work in Labour's favour

As Chancellor, Gordon Brown successfully guided Britain through the global recession of 2000 and 2001, notably managing to avoid a downturn in growth. Whilst rising fuel and food prices are currently the source of much disquiet, if Brown can be seen to drag Britain out of the economic crisis he helped guide us in to, then the ever short-memoried electorate may find him to be once again, "the man".

Dynasties don't vanish overnight

After three-term winner Margaret Thatcher was ousted by her own party, there was still enough gas in the Tory tank to win a term for John Major. Whispers around Westminster claim that Gordon Brown knows full well that he is part of the problem and is already studying how to depart with dignity. With a new leader in place, the Labour party can heap all the blame onto Brown, thus cleaning their own slate, and take advantage of the rich electoral possibilities of a vigorous new front man.

Tags: Crewe By-Election, David Cameron, Glasgow-East By-Election, Gordon Brown, John Major, Labour, Liberal Democrats, Margaret Thatcher, Neil Kinnock, Tory Party