General Election Betting / maxliu / 05 June 2009 / Leave a comment

Initial election results deliver damning verdict on the government as PM launches emergency cabinet reshuffle after Purnell becomes third minister to resign in a week...

After one of the most turbulent weeks in Labour Party history, Betfair punters have the Prime Minister at even money to resign before the end of the month.

As he awaits what is expected to be a devastating set of European election results, beleagured Gordon Brown is currently trading at [2.02] in the Leader's Exit Dates market following the resignations of three cabinet ministers in a week - including last night's dramatic exit of Pensions Minister James Purnell, who called on the PM to quit in an open letter to the press.

It is estimated that up to a 100 MPs are prepared to call for Mr Brown, who has been in the job for almost two years, to resign now.

The Conservatives have demanded a general election with David Cameron urging Brown to go to Buckingham Palace to request the dissolution of parliament today.

However, while punters can conceive of Brown falling on his sword before the month is out, they are less confident that his exit would result in the nation going to the polls.

The price on an election before the end of the year has slid to [2.26] but it has traded as low as [1.64]. The [1.71] available on a 2010 election reflects the widely held view that Labour might appoint a new leader in the hope that he or she could improve the party's chances of winning a fourth term. Alan Johnson, who has been appointed to replace Jacqui Smith as Home Secretary in today's emergency cabinet reshuffle, can be matched at [2.28] in the Next Prime Minister market.

The Tories currently trade at [1.16] in the Next General Election market with Labour at [7.8] and the Lib Dems at [75.0].