Super Tuesday State Profile: California
Democratic Primary Analysis:
Hillary Clinton has always led in California on Betfair, never having traded at prices odds-against. This state is hugely important because of its size - 441 delegates. The state is not entirely winner-takes-all, but - just to confuse - winner-takes-all by district. This means that whichever candidate gets the most votes per Congressional district (and there are 53 of them in California) takes the delegates assigned to that district.
Performing well in California is important because of the number of delegates at stake, but the results here are often significantly affected by results from earlier states. Therefore, look to New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts to give an indication of how the voting in California will go - close results in exit polling from the East coast will bring people out to vote in California and have a big impact.
Republican Primary Analysis:
John McCain is currently favourite here but his lead has been narrowed from over eight points on average a week ago to just 3 points. Romney lies in second with Huckabee polling far behind in third place. This is a key state delegate-wise and if John McCain isn't going to be the Republican nominee then Mitt Romney must win here.
Important information
- Timezone: GMT -8
- Polls open: 2PM GMT
- Polls close: 3AM GMT
- Abbreviation: CA
- Delegates at stake: 441
- Registered voters: Democrats 42.5%, Republicans 34.3%
Demographics
- White: 46.7%
- Hispanic: 32.4%
- Black: 6.1%
- Other: 14.8%
Political history
- Senators: both Democrats, Dianne Feinstein and Barbara Boxer
- Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger (Republican)
- 2004 voted for: Kerry
- Electoral College votes: 55
Other stats
- Population: 36.5 million
- State nickname: The Golden State
- State capital: Sacramento
- Most famous offspring: Joe DiMaggio, Robert Frost, Jeff Gordon, George Lucas, Richard Nixon, General George Patton, Robert Redford, John Steinbeck, Adlai Stevenson, Earl Warren, Serena and Venus Williams, Tiger Woods, Coolio
- Strange fact: it is illegal for women to drive wearing a dressing gown
Click here to view California Republican Primary
Click here to view California Democratic Primary
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Events calendar
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/01/hillarys_latino_firewall.html
This is a really interesting article from the Chicago Sun Times. It basically says that the Clintons are playing a dangerous game by relying on the Latino vote.
I think Obama is good value at 3.6 - just from a value perspective. The polling in this race is notoriously inaccurate.
Stu | 29 January 2008