The Betfair Prof: "Seeing Dick Cheney the other day got me to thinking..."

The Betfair Prof / Leighton Vaughan Williams / 19 May 2008 / Leave a Comment

The Betfair Prof, Leighton Vaughan Williams, gives his prediction market analysis on Hillary Clinton's chances of becoming the next Vice President of the United States...

I've spent much of the last week at the 2008 World Congress on National Accounts and Economic Performance Measures for Nations, held in Arlington, Virginia, just across the river from Washington DC. As part of my broad remit as an economist I've been outlining some of the techniques I have used to estimate productivity in the broadcasting sector, work which was contributory to the last BBC licence fee settlement.

Whilst over here I thought I might take a look at the North Wing of the White House, only to run straight into a secret service battery of gun-toting agents flashing by within six feet of my face, with Vice-President Dick Cheney in tow. He waved at me. I did not wave back.

All of which got me to thinking who is most likely to take over from the current office-holder come next January. Assuming that Senator Clinton's landslide win in West Virginia does not presage something equally spectacular in the Democratic nomination stakes, the question reduces to three issues. Firstly, how likely is Barack Obama to offer her first refusal assuming he gets the opportunity? Secondly, how likely is it that she would accept the silver medal if offered it? Thirdly, how likely is she to win the Vice Presidency if contesting the general election in November on the Obama ticket?

The second and third questions are, in my opinion, the easiest to answer. Let's take them in turn. How likely is Hillary to accept a place at the bottom of the Democratic ticket if offered it? Conventional wisdom is that she would have none of this, angling instead for the top rungs of the ladder in what is likely to be a Democrat-controlled Congress for some time to come, perhaps even as Senate Majority Leader. My view is different. I think if offered the job she would take it. If the ticket won she would be set for a pitch at the top job in 2016, when she would still be three years younger than John McCain is now. If they lost, there's always 2012.

If nominated, the Betfair market currently indicates that she would have about a 62% chance of being elected Vice-President in what is essentially a year in which most Americans are looking for change. But there's the rub, because we have to ask the extent to which Barack Obama would be likely to see his pitch as an agent of change compromised by having the former First Lady on the ticket. The second thing in Senator Obama's mind is likely to be whether his choice is likely to help him win a swing state like Ohio (Ted Strickland could help there) or even Virginia (where Jim Webb would help).

My best guess (assuming Obama is nominated) is that there's about a 50% chance she will be given the choice, a 70% chance she would accept if asked, and about a six in ten chance she'd be elected if running.

All of which adds up, if my assumptions are right (including the assumption that Obama is nominated), of just over a one in five chance of the former First Lady becoming the next Second Lady.

So would you take [5.0]?