The Betfair Prof: "Everything's startin' to hum... It's a real good bet, the best is yet to come!"

The Betfair Prof / Leighton Vaughan Williams / 13 May 2008 / Leave a Comment

The Betfair Prof, Leighton Vaughan Williams, tells us about the connection between Frank Sinatra and prediction markets and gives us an insight into the upcoming symposium on gambling, prediction markets and public policy...

About this time last year I was on my way to Frank Sinatra Drive via Las Vegas (yes, the actual drive on which Frank lived). The purpose of my trip was a symposium I was co-organising on the theme of gambling and prediction markets, held at the University of Riverside, California, and situated on the drive named after (or named for, as the Americans like to say) Ol' Blue Eyes. Palm Desert is an attractive place to hold a conference, if a little difficult to get to, but it's well worth it once you get there.

Add in the prestige of association with a special issue of the leading academic journal, 'Economica', as well as the Journal of Prediction Markets (www.predictionmarketjournal.com) and the Journal of Gambling Business and Economics (www.jgbe.com), and it was no surprise that over 70 of the top researchers in the field made the trek. The keynote speaker was Prof. Steven Levitt, of the University of Chicago, well-known as the author of the international bestseller, 'Freakonomics'.

This year the symposium moves to the somewhat less balmy but no less venerable location of Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University. The theme - 'Gambling, Prediction Markets and Public Policy' - is already attracting a lot of interest, and once again there is a special issue of a leading international journal to accompany the conference - this time, the US-based 'Southern Economic Journal'.

The questions conference delegates will be seeking to answer are as many and varied as the field itself. Here are a few examples. How can prediction markets be used in decision-making? Are there systematic biases in betting and prediction markets? How well do prediction markets perform relative to other forecasting tools, such as opinion polls? What is the optimal design of prediction markets? What are the applications of prediction markets? How does the growth of gambling and prediction markets affect the broader economy? Are betting markets efficient at aggregating information and what implications does the answer have for our broader understanding of financial and prediction markets?

The conference takes place this September, on the 15th and 16th, with a pre-conference reception on the 14th , and those wishing to present a paper need to submit a short abstract explaining the theme of their presentation by the 23rd of this month. Authors of all papers accepted for presentation will be notified by June 15th. There's no need to present at the conference, however. Many delegates just turn up to listen, chat and basically enter into the gambling and prediction markets community.

If you're interested in giving a paper, don't hesitate to contact me at: Leighton.vaughan-williams@ntu.ac.uk

If you just want to turn up and find out what's going on at the cutting edge of research in the field, please let the conference administrator, Julie Stravino, know, at: Julie.stravino@ntu.ac.uk

Anyway, more details can be found at:
Gambling, Prediction Markets and Public Policy ; or else at the NTU site.

So what is the connection between Frank and prediction markets?
For the answer, look no further than that great Sinatra hit, 'The Best Is Yet to Come!'
"Everything's startin' to hum ... it's a real good bet, the best is yet to come".

Just think about it, what else could he have been talking about?