The Betfair Prof / Leighton Vaughan Williams / 14 April 2008 /

The Betfair Prof, Leighton Vaughan Williams, reflects on the US Masters and what prediction markets have to do with it...

I was wishing that I could play like Trevor Immelman when for some reason, on the par three 16th hole of this year's Masters, he decided to start playing like me!

For a moment, as the man with the swing Gary Player has likened to that of the legendary Ben Hogan found the water, I was reminded of Phil Mickelson at the last hole of the 2006 US Open. As the left-handed American stepped up to the last tee at the West Course of the Winged Foot Golf Club, with a one-shot cushion, he had managed to hit his tee-shot way left into the thronged masses beyond the ropes and then tried to cut the ball around an imposing tree. Normally, you would expect the shot to come off but this time the only thing it came off was a branch, with the usual consequence. The rest of the hole was a whirl of wedges, sand and sadness for the American. Not to be outdone, Colin Montgomerie, one shot away from a first Masters win, decided to slice a routine shot from fairway to the last green.

The rest is history as Mickelson and Montgomerie got to share second-place prize money with 'Gentleman' Jim Furyk, the man whose legendary powers of concentration had once 'survived' the presentation of a pair of roses on the 14th green of the 2003 US Open by an attractive blonde streaker. He went on to win that tournament with a score just one off the all-time US Open scoring record.

What happened at Winged Foot has echoes, of course, in the closing holes of the British Open of 1999. Nobody watching at the time can fail to remember how on that occasion life mirrored art when Jean Van de Velde did a pretty good imitation of the final-hole woes of washed-up golf pro, Roy McAvoy, played by Kevin Costner, in the romantic comedy, 'Tin Cup.' Needing to make only a six on the par four 18th hole at Carnoustie to grasp the Claret Jug, the Frenchman hit the ball pretty much everywhere except at the hole. But at least he made the play-off.

Point taken by me, as I have many times since then witnessed what has seemed like crazy over-reaction in the markets to the normal ebb and flow of shots around a golf course. During the latest Masters, for example, as the leader rounded Amen Corner you could have admired the azaleas at the 13th while calmly picking up almost any price you cared to ask for about anyone other than the man from Cape Town.

OK, the favourite won in the end with something to spare, but it is doubtful in my opinion whether the odds swings over the final round can be considered in any way to have dispassionately reflected the flow of new information.

If I'm right, there's good money to be made. If I'm wrong, you'll hopefully still have had the pleasure of watching a cracking game of golf. Maybe check it out some time!

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