The Betfair Prof / Leighton Vaughan Williams / 24 September 2009 / Leave a comment

The Betfair Prof, Leighton Vaughan Williams, tells us that money talks, most of the time...

It's a few days since I backed Treaty Flyer to win the 3.40 'rippleeffect.com Handicap Hurdle' at Bangor-on-Dee. Generally available at [8.0] (a little longer on Betfair), the eight-year old chestnut mare was two pounds ahead of the handicapper, had the conditions in her favour, and was coming to the race fresh from a sparkling performance in a competitive Stratford handicap. I was a little surprised, therefore, when she opened on course at [9.0], before drifting steadily to [13.0] at the off, and [16.0] on Betfair.

The instinctive reaction of many, like me, who backed her at the early price may have been to write off their losses before the horses had even got into their stride, or perhaps to lay some of the impending loss off on Betfair, albeit at about twice the odds obtained. For there was no obvious reason to explain this marked drift in the betting, causing some to suspect, I guess, that there were some who knew more than they were telling. In the event, the suspicions were totally unfounded, as the mount of Johnny Farrelly, suited by the ground and the fast pace, got up with to beat her stablemate with something to spare, giving the Alison Thorpe yard an impressive 1-2.

Now move forward a little to Tuesday, September 22, and the 5.10 at Stratford, the Class 6 'Jenkinsons Caterers Standard Open National Hunt Flat race'. This time my money was attracted to the Paul Nicholls-trained gelding, King of the Night. Although fourth on his debut in June, the form of that race had been franked with winning re-appearances by the runner-up and third, and the horse was open to plenty of improvement. Backers could not help feeling some confidence in their selection until a deluge of money came for Gentle Jim, a half-brother to the useful jumper Risk Accessor and hurdle winner Galetollah.

From [12.0] on course at the opening show he went off at [4.5]. Ominously, the Racing Post form expert had that morning written of the horse - "interesting runner on racecourse debut, especially if the market speaks in favour". Well, it just had! In the event, however, and in spite of the hype of the 'At the Races' race commentator, nobody had told the horse. It was simply never in serious contention. King of the Night lived up to its promise and won with more than three lengths to spare.

Money talks, they say. And sometimes it does. But not always!