London Mayor Election Odds: Ken doing his best to buoy Boris

/ Mike Robb / 19 February 2008 / Leave a Comment

The election of the next Mayor of London is just two and a half months away. Betfair's Mike Robb takes a look at where the betting markets currently stand...

Ken Livingstone's price has been slowly drifting over the last month or so and is currently at [1.69]. Ninety per cent of the money backing him has been between [1.5] and [1.7], however, so we are yet to see a real negative move for him in the markets.

At the same time there seem to be a plethora of stories, events and comments coming out against him. Accusations of financial irregularities, expensive trips abroad at the taxpayers' expense, charges that London has become his 'personal fiefdom', bullying in the GLA, and smear campaigns against whistleblowers are but a selection of the myriad of juicy stories coming out against 'Red Ken'.

Nevertheless, he is still a warm odds-on favourite to win another term. A YouGov poll in December put Conservative Boris Johnson just one percentage point behind Ken (on 44%). A later poll, at the end of January, showed a four point lead for Ken, but this is still very much within any margin of error.

So what's the big picture?
There can be no doubting that the race is very close and certainly one that appears closer than the [1.69] afforded to 'Ken Leninspart' would suggest. The [2.54] currently offered for Boris implies just a 39% chance of victory, but the news would all seem to suggest that although Ken may well still have an edge it is much closer than these prices suggest.

Perhaps the problem at the back of everyone's minds is seeing a picture of Boris Johnson actually being Mayor as a credible and realistic proposition. For many Boris still remains a quasi 'joke' candidate, with no real prospects of actually being accepted by the electorate. This image has not changed over the course of the last couple of months, but the widely documented failings of the current Mayor has closed the gap dramatically into something whereby even a joke Mayor could be better than Ken.

Above all else it's important to remember that it's all very up in the air at the moment. Nobody really knows the impact of the shenanigans surrounding Ken at the moment and there is a lack of regular and high-quality polling to give us much of an insight.

We can be sure to start seeing more media coverage once (or should I say 'if') things die down over in the US, so if you think Boris is a credible candidate that will relish the increased media spotlight, maybe now is the time to get on before the masses cotton on?

What's your opinion? Click here to bet on who is going to be the next Mayor of London

Betfair Politics Zone