Betting Challenge Week 12: Brown's exit may come later than you think

General Politics Betting / Jack Houghton / 29 October 2009 / Leave a Comment

"There won’t be anywhere near that sense of urgency to elect a leader of a defeated party, and given a likely much more competitive field (there is no clear favourite to take over from Brown), it is entirely probably Brown will remain Labour Party leader until into July 2010."

Common consensus about Brown's departure from the labour leadership may be wrong, suggests Jack Houghton, who thinks he's found the 'bet of the century'. While looking around the politicss markets he had a peak at the Glasgow North-East By-Election odds too

There is a truth professional gamblers hold to be self-evident: to be profitable, you must specialise. Losers gorge themselves of all that the great buffet of betting has to offer; winners only ever eat the cheese and pineapple sticks. Who knows what might be lurking in that couscous salad? Therein lies uncertainty, and winners have no truck with uncertainty.

Jack Houghton was a long-time follower of the specialisation theory. Many learned academics credit him with its invention. But now he's turned his back. August 2009. Armed with a £1,000 bank and oodles of likely misplaced confidence, he sets out to prove that, in a year, betting on everything Betfair has to offer, he can turn a profit.

* * *

Shush. Listen carefully. Can you hear that? Yes folks, it's the sound of profit, rumbling and a-tumbling down a hill, before crashing headlong into a Betting Challenge bank account near you.

The moment Kinda Easy nonchalantly shrugged off the late thrust of Droopys Zach, by a short-head, was the moment we roared victoriously back into profit; silencing forever those editorial know-nothings at Betfair HQ. The lull is behind us now; nine months of unrelenting winning awaits.

Some, at this point, would cast their nets less widely, retreat into territory they knew well. But not I. Now is the time to expand operations. So it is with great seriousness and gravitas that I turn to the world of politics. And, always wanting to surprise, you'll be amazed to hear I've done some research. And what's more, I'm fairly sure I've found the bet of the century as a result.

Currently, in the Leader Exit Dates market for Gordon Brown, old turkey-neck is expected to cease being the leader of the Labour Party at some point between, and inclusive of, April and June 2010. This outcome is currently overwhelming favourite at [2.14].

The rationale for those dates to assume favouritism looks solid. Brown has to call an election by May 10, 2010, and will, presumably, wait until the last possible moment to do so. The Conservatives are long odds-on to win the most seats at the next General Election and so, presumably, a defeated Brown will resign soon after. All sounds very probable, doesn't it?

Well not on closer inspection. Even if Brown resigned the day after a General Election, it is highly likely he would remain party leader until a new leader could be elected.

Think back to the Labour Party leadership election of 2007. Although Blair tendered his resignation on May 10, he remained Labour leader until June 24; a period of over six weeks. And, as leadership elections go, that one couldn't have been more straightforward. Only John McDonnell stood in opposition, but he was unable to secure enough nominations to appear on the ballot and soon conceded defeat to Brown. Furthermore, given the winner of that leadership battle also became Prime Minister; there was a desire within the Labour Party to ensure a speedy and efficient transition.

Given there won't be anywhere near that sense of urgency to elect a leader of a defeated party, and given a likely much more competitive field (there is no clear favourite to take over from Brown), it is entirely probably Brown will remain Labour Party leader until into July 2010.

July to September 2010 inclusive is currently available to back at [5.8], and the Betting Challenge is confidently striding in, ballot paper in hand, and having a near-maximum £40 on.

Whilst I'm in Westminster, it's worth checking out the market for the Glasgow North-East By-Election, where Willie Bain looks value at [1.65] to win the seat for Labour. I'm having £10 on. Given the seat was previously occupied by House of Commons' Speaker, Michael Martin, and so was uncontested by the major parties in 2005 and 2001, there is little recent data to go on. However, Labour won the seat with a massive 71 per cent of the vote in 1997, and it's a seat it has won (boundary changes aside) in every General Election since 1931. True, the SNP looks a more viable prospect than it ever has in the area but, given the support of the ex-Speaker's son, Scottish MP Paul Martin, the seat is there for Willie Bain's taking.

I'm off to read the form book ahead of next week's Breeders' Cup. Until then my dedicated followers...

This week's bets:
£40 BACK of Jul-Sept 2010 at [5.8] in Leader Exit Dates - Gordon Brown market.
£10 BACK Labour at [1.65] in Glasgow North-East By-Election market.