/ Paul Krishnamurty / 11 March 2010 /

You know the Tories are struggling when they're targetting ex-mining communities. But will they fare any better against a potential future Labour leader and can they hold on to a by-election gain? Paul Krishnamurty continues his journey through the marginals.

Bassetlaw
Conservative Target No. 162 (8.25% swing required)

As they haven't won here in over 70 years, the scale of their task in gaining a sizeable majority is really emphasised by the fact that Bassetlaw lies well within the Tories top-200 targets. Some boundary changes do help, but this is largely ex-mining country, an area with bitter memories of recent Tory governments. Moreover, they'll need to oust a popular sitting MP in John Mann, one of very few MPs to emerge from the MPs expenses scandal with their reputation enhanced.

Verdict: Labour cannot consider defeat here, and John Mann should have enough in hand.

Dagenham & Rainham
Conservative Target No. 164 (8.35% swing required)

The result of this redrawn Essex seat could have profound implications for the future of the Labour Party. The sitting MP is Jon Cruddas, unofficial leader of the mainstream Left on the Labour backbenches. As he's never served, or fully supported, the New Labour project, Cruddas is well poised to challenge for the post-Brown leadership.

First he must defend his seat though. The fact Cruddas has spearheaded a local and London-wide campaign against the BNP could be significant; not least because BNP leader Nick Griffin will have a high profile 'next door' in the battle for Barking.

Verdict: Cruddas can mobilise anti-BNP support to hold on.

Crewe & Nantwich
Conservative Target No. 165 (8.4% swing required)

By-election results are often reversed in General Elections, but Labour face a tough task coming back from their thumping defeat here in 2008. Granted, that contest took place when Labour were at their lowest ebb and after a catastrophic campaign, but the seat may never have been as safe as the figures suggest. The late Gwyneth Dunwoody would surely have counted on a vast personal vote-share, and without her presence the seat looks more like a typical English marginal.

Verdict: Tories to confirm by-election success

Aberdeen West & Kincardine
Conservative Target No. 171 (8.95% swing required)

Though there's scant evidence of a Tory revival in Scotland, a gain here isn't out of the question as the opponents are the Lib Dems. All recent Scottish polls place Nick Clegg's party in fourth place, with the swing away from them since 2005 just about bringing this seat into range. Nevertheless, like many Scottish Liberals before him, three-term MP Sir Robert Smith appears to have built up a strong personal vote.

Verdict: Lib Dems remain favourites

Exeter

Conservative Target No. 176 (9.35% swing required)

The numbers here suggest a tough task for the Tories, but Exeter is the type of English seat where the swing could be above the national average. It was held by the Tories for three decades until 1997, and has a high percentage of the educated middle-class voters that David Cameron has courted assiduously. Minister Ben Bradshaw would be quite a scalp for the headlines, too.

Verdict: One of the most impressive Tory gains of the night.

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