August 2009

The Betfair Prof: "What does football forecasting have to do with Prussian soliders?"

Leighton Vaughan Williams / 26 August 2009 / Leave a comment

What does football forecasting have to do with the number of Prussian soldiers kicked to death by horses? Thanks to Simeon Denis Poisson, the great scientist, mathematician and statistician, it has everything to with it. To explain why, we need to travel back to the early nineteenth century and the...Read more »

Next Labour Leader Betting: The leading contenders' odds rundown

Paul Krishnamurty / 19 August 2009 / Leave a comment

With the next General Election looking almost certain to produce a Tory government, the race could soon be on to replace Gordon Brown as leader of the Labour Party. Paul Krishnamurty weighs up the five leading contenders and a very dark horse....Read more »

What happens when you call a glass half full when it is in fact half empty?

Leighton Vaughan Williams / 18 August 2009 / Leave a comment

The prediction market master looks at the effects of 'optimism bias' with the help of Google......Read more »