Other / Gary Boswell / 08 December 2011 /

It's the first week of December and that means that an early look at which city has the best chance of having a White Christmas is required. Gary and James Boswell talk snowflakes, trends and odds.

Time was that it seemed White Christmases were a phenomenon restricted to Dickensian story books and Christmas TV specials. Recently, however, whether because of global warming or through some meteorological fluke, we've seen a sudden surge of Yuletide picture card scenes. Since 1990 the UK has seen at least one flake of snow fall on the 25th December in 11 of the 21 years. 2009 gave us our first White Christmas in five years and 2010 broke all the records by being the coldest winter many of us had ever experienced. 2011 certainly has a tough act to follow, but will it live up to its billing?

There are two schools of thought on the matter. The first reasons that, having had two chilly winters in a row, there's no way that a third can follow. Most meteorologists agree that the last two years have been unusually cold, and that global warming should actually be leading to milder, less snow-ridden winters. On the other hand, there's no denying the incontrovertible evidence which shows that winters have been colder in recent years, so a warm winter now would actually be bucking the trend.

Until last week, this year had been much kinder to the brass monkeys than last year. November was mild, almost tepid, in comparison to last year's Balkan conditions. The cold snap has begun a little now but the snowfalls that we've witnessed in the last few years were due to unusually cold and settled Decembers, during which the temperature was consistently below freezing. Current Met Office estimates suggest that we'll be having a more unsettled and gusty advent this year, which, coupled with the highly average bordering on mundane, temperatures being forecast, bodes for a less white winter.

Despite this, there is still some hope for fans of what Bing Crosby famously sang about. Between 1971 and 1992 there was only one recorded White Christmas, but between 1993 and 2004, snow was falling (all around me) on the 25th more often than not. Even with the lack of snow between 2004 and 2009, White Christmases have still occurred somewhere in the UK in more than half of the years since 1993.

And what of the markets? Well, London is a short price at [1.2] not to get any snow, and seeing as it's been 12 years since a single flake fell on the day that counts, those odds seem fairly representative. Also unsurprising is that notably chilly Edinburgh is relatively short odds at [2.7] to see some of the white stuff. Interestingly though, before 2010 it had been 10 years since the Scottish capital had recorded a White Christmas, despite widespread snowfall in some of those years, perhaps indicating that the outcome is not quite as sure as the odds would suggest. At the time of writing, there have been vague reports of snowfall in Edinburgh, but the locals haven't begun forging their tennis rackets into makeshift snow shoes just yet.

Of the capital cities though, the best odds are on Belfast at [4.2]. In the last 20 years, it's out-performed all of its UK rivals in the holiday snow stakes, recording precipitation of the flaky kind at the International Airport on eight separate occasions, beating Edinburgh on six, Cardiff with four and London with a paltry two. Snow in general might look unlikely, but if we're going to get a flurry anywhere, Belfast looks a good bet, at the odds, to get in on the action.

Recommended Bets:

Lay Edinburgh White Christmas @ [3.3]
Back Belfast White Christmas @ [4.2]

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