Other / The Betfair Contrarian / 09 June 2009 / Leave a comment

It's going to be 'scorchio' all over the UK this summer and you can double up on the barbecue and bikini fun by making money from it. The Betfair Contrarian tells all...

As you would expect, the Contrarian prefers cold, drizzly weather to glorious sunshine, which has proved handy in recent years because there have been plenty of opportunities for cheap and challenging caravan holidays in Wales. However, he is stocking up on suncream at the moment because he believes that for the second time in history, the temperature will top the 100F mark [4.5 on Betfair] this summer. Here's why:

This year is on course to top 2006
The only year in which the 100F mark was broken in the UK was 2003 and the record temperature in each month so far this year has fallen just short of those recorded that year. However, the second hottest summer of the decade came in 2006 and, encouragingly, 2009 is on course to top that. The record temperatures in four of the first five months of this year have topped their 2006 counterparts and on average there has been an improvement of 2.3F a month. The significance of that statistic is that in July 2006, the hottest temperature recorded was 97.7F (Wisley, Surrey) and a 2.3F improvement on that would hit the 100F mark.

You cant argue with Wisley
That 97.7F temperature recorded in Wisley during the 2006 heatwave broke an English record for being the hottest ever July day and there is reason to believe that new heights could be reached in Surrey this summer. The highs recorded there in both February (59.18) and March (61.16) this year were significantly superior to their equivalents in that record-breaking year (53.60 and 57.74). Unfortunately, the Wisley figure for April 2006 is inaccessible but this year's mark of 70.7 was higher than anywhere in the UK managed at that point three years ago.

Precautions are being taken already
The Department of Health are obviously wary of a record-breaking summer and have acted by launching their biggest ever Heatwave Plan. This years PGF guide spans 39 pages, compared to 32 last year. Among the techniques suggested to prepare for what could be a blisteringly hot summer are painting houses white, planting shrubs to provide shade and identifying the coolest room in your house (the Contrarian's is a small WC under the stairs.)

The Met Office anticipates a barbecue summer
The last two summers have been very disappointing: 2007's was the wettest ever while last August was the dullest in history but the Met Office have confidently predicted that there will be significant improvement this year. They say that the UK is odds on for a barbecue summer with temperatures higher than normal and rainfall below average. Chief meteorologist Ewen McCallum has said: "After two disappointingly wet summers, the signs are much more promising this year." For the ever-understated Met Office, such a statement is their equivalent of letting their hair down.

NASA believes a new global temperature record is imminent
A hot summer appears to be on the horizon globally after NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies revealed back in January that they believe the planets temperature record will be broken by the end of next year. They said: "Given our expectation of the next El Nino beginning in 2009 or 2010, it still seems likely that a new global temperature record will be set within the next 1-2 years, despite the moderate negative effect of the reduced solar irradiance."