Other / Editor / 29 September 2009 /

The race to host the 2016 Olympics may not set fans' pulses racing but it does offer a prime betting opportunity, says Eliot Pollak.

For the average male, seven days ahead is too far to make promises. Any appointment that requires writing it on the next page of the diary cannot be taken seriously. Yet on the October 2, four cities vie to make a promise for seven years hence, a promise that they will do a great job of hosting the 2016 Olympic and Paralympic games.

It's a fantastic betting opportunity, a genuine four horse field, where the slightest edge for the punter can be crucial. Below is a brief examination of each of the four contenders, whereafter we will examine the voting process, and pinpoint the value.

Chicago

Slogan: 'Let Friendship Shine'
IOC Preliminary Score: (/10) 7
Celebrity Supporters: Barack Obama, Michael Phelps, Oprah Winfrey, Michael Jordan, David Schwimmer
% Public Support: 77
# Facebook Fans: 77,247

Madrid

Slogan: 'Feel the Experience, its in your Hands'
IOC Preliminary Score: (/10) 8.1
Celebrity Supporters: Juan Antonio Samaranch, Mercedes Coghen
% Public Support: 89.4
# Facebook Fans: 93,763

Rio de Janeiro

Slogan: 'Live your Passion'
IOC Preliminary Score: (/10) 6.4
Celebrity Supporters: Pele, Nicolas Sarkozy
% Public Support: 85
# Facebook Fans: 1,131

Tokyo

Slogan: 'Uniting our World'
IOC Preliminary Score: (/10) 8.3
Celebrity Supporters: Riyo Mori
% Public Support: 56
# Facebook Fans: 428

The 115 IOC delegates (made up of bigwigs, suits and other meddling bureaucrats) vote for their favoured city. If any city achieves a majority after the first round, their Mayor can look forward to greeting Boris at the handover three years hence. If not, the bottom city gets eliminated, and another vote occurs. This process continues until a majority is secured.

Tokyo [13.5] are the least likely winners. Despite scoring the highest IOC score at the preliminary stage, another Asian games so soon after Beijing would be extraordinary. Public support within Tokyo itself is limited, and however desirable Miss Universe 2007 Riyo Mori is, surely she can't influence with every delegate.

The other three cities can all stake a better claim. Madrid [13.0] led after the first round in the 2012 bidding, and it is possible that the same could happen again. Hence backing at the current price and laying after the first round of voting could be wise. Despite an impressive bid, the presence of a former IOC President and huge public enthusiasm, staging two European Olympics in a row is unfair and Madrid will fail.

So it's Rio vs Chicago.

The American city is a firm favourite and has even been warned against complacency. Rio, however, is the romantic choice - a first ever games in South America. In addition, many have argued that Rio shouldn't even have made the final four, having been outscored by Doha in earlier stages. The fact the IOC shuffled their own rules to force Rio through, shows an inherent will to make it happen. The value bet is undoubtedly Brazil.

The ATR power index has Chicago in a slender lead. Looking back four years, this can be easily understood. London's success in 2012 was credited largely to Tony Blair's appearance as well as that of David Beckham. Whatever merits the Brazilians have, when honorary Chicagans Obama and Oprah stroll into Copenhagen, their stardust will surely end the Brazilian fairytale.

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