Other / Jack Houghton / 02 October 2009 / Leave a comment

Our man Houghton is moored up in Copenhagen watching the Olympic bidding where he confidently predicts misery for favourites Chicago in the host city betting. Read why in another hilarious hit from his betting challenge

"To many, Obama’s decision to turn up for the final day of deliberations and voting – marks Chicago’s bid down as the most likely winner. But I’m not too sure. Some dude from the IOC – presumably caught off-message – was on television this week saying the bid would be given to the city with the fewest “risks” associated with it."

There is a truth professional gamblers hold to be self-evident: to be profitable, you must specialise. Losers gorge themselves of all that the great buffet of betting has to offer; winners only ever eat the cheese and pineapple sticks. Who knows what might be lurking in that couscous salad? Therein lies uncertainty, and winners have no truck with uncertainty.

Jack Houghton was a long-time follower of the specialisation theory. Many learned academics credit him with its invention. But now he's turned his back. August 2009. Armed with a £1,000 bank and oodles of likely misplaced confidence, he sets out to prove that, in a year, betting on everything Betfair has to offer, he can turn a profit.

* * *

Surname: Thomas. Forenames: Doubting. Banish yourself forthwith from my sight! I heard you snigger when you read I was going to be betting on cricket last week. Who's laughing now, huh?

After England crushed South Africa on Sunday - tipped up here at [3.0] - the up-to-that-point stricken and sinking Betting Challenge bank was able to find much needed buoyancy. True, we're not in profit just yet. You wait though: cricket was a new experience - handled with aplomb - and now I will be simultaneously predicting the outcome of some horse-trading in Copenhagen - my debut bet on naming the Olympic host city - and some horse-race in Paris.

Running an Olympic bid is effectively like playing a game of flesh-and-blood Top Trumps. Seb played a blinder when deploying Tony Blair for London. Unleashed, Ol' Smarm-Cheeks lobbied IOC members in his slick, never-off-message way. Chirac tried to similarly help Paris, stating that, "the only worse food than British food is Finnish." This no doubt went down a storm with Finland's two IOC members. Unperturbed, he continued by saying, "the only thing the British have done for Europe's agriculture is mad cow disease." This annoyed the Iceland representatives; it's Friesian up there. Ho ho.

What Blair understood though, and Chirac clearly didn't, is that, in a competition such as this, it's sportsmanlike arse-licking that wins, not crowd-pleasing insults. And Chicago, Madrid, Tokyo and Rio would have all had their snouts pressed firmly at Committee-member butt-holes for months.

It would be rare for a playground Top Trumper (not in that way), who was holding Pele (not in that way), to fear any competitor. But this ain't the playground; you're dancing with the big boys now. You play Pele? I play the Prime Minister of Japan. You play King Carlos of Spain? I play the Leader of the Free World. Poor old Pele: he might as well be John Barnes for all the clout he has in this game.

To many, Obama's decision to turn up for the final day of deliberations and voting - the result should be announced around 1800 BST on Friday - marks Chicago's bid down as the most likely winner. But I'm not too sure. Some dude from the IOC - presumably caught off-message (Blair would not approve) - was on television this week saying the bid would be given to the city with the fewest "risks" associated with it.

With Chicago, doesn't jeopardy abound? A US-based Olympics is, presumably, a high-risk terrorist target; and isn't there also danger that the federal-state-city politics of Chicago pose financial risks? Furthermore, many parts of the world are wrangling with the US politically, making boycotts more likely. For the risk-averse, Chicago is no safe-house.

So, with confidence, I'm laying Chicago for £30 at [1.74]. And I'm backing Tokyo for £10 at [34.0]. They are the outsider of four but, pursuing the risk angle, look the most solid proposition. By the way, you will find betting on the Olympic Host City under Special Bets.

International playboy of the jetsetters as I am, my yacht sets sail from Copenhagen tomorrow evening to make Paris in time for Sunday's Arc. When there I'll be opposing Sea The Stars. Yes, he's the best horse in the race - I have him about nine pounds clear on speed figures - but his best form has been on firmer ground over ten furlongs. It is likely he will run significantly below the form he showed at Sandown and York - as he did in softer ground at Leopardstown - and that makes him a vulnerable odds-on shot.

The competition is solid. At least four have the ability to nab a below-par Sea The Stars and none of them have been campaigned as aggressively as the favourite. I can't really split Conduit, Fame And Glory, Cavalryman and Stacelita, so will simply lay Sea The Stars for £20 at [1.82].

I used to have Top Trumps Mythical Gods. Thor was the butt-kicker in that deck. I sometimes think of myself as the Thor of the betting world: firing off my omnipotent thunderbolts into the markets. There goes another one. Kapow!

This week's bets:
£30 LAY at [1.74] of Chicago in Olympic Host Bid market.
£10 BACK at [34.0] of Tokyo in Olympic Host Bid market.
£20 LAY at [1.82] of Sea The Stars in the Arc.

Tags: Barack Obama, Chicago, Madrid, Olympic Host City, Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, Rio, Sea The Stars, Tokyo