Other / Jack Houghton / 24 January 2010 / 1

Should we send presents that are pink or blue? With a little help from Usain and Paula, our man asks you to predict the sex of his first-born. Yes, really...

There is a truth professional gamblers hold to be self-evident: to be profitable, you must specialise. Losers gorge themselves of all that the great buffet of betting has to offer; winners only ever eat the cheese and pineapple sticks. Who knows what might be lurking in that couscous salad? Therein lies uncertainty, and winners have no truck with uncertainty.

Jack Houghton was a long-time follower of the specialisation theory. Many learned academics credit him with its invention. But now he's turned his back. August 2009. Armed with a £1,000 bank and oodles of likely misplaced confidence, he sets out to prove that, in a year, betting on everything Betfair has to offer, he can turn a profit.

* * *

Despite hours of trawling the Betfair markets, I haven't managed to find any bets to spur the Betting Challenge into action this week. Unfortunately, the misery-collective - otherwise known as the betting.betfair editorship - insist on weekly instalments. So I'm a bit stuck. Or so I thought.

You see my wife and I (cue big cheer from assembled wedding guests) are expecting our first child in June. Later in the week we go for our 20-week scan. At this scan, should we choose, and provided no foetal legs are crossed, we can find out the sex of our unborn baby. A betting opportunity if ever there was one.

Here's the proposal. This week, the Betting Challenge will, based on all the evidence available, set odds on the sex of Unborn-Baby-Houghton. You, a teething mass of regular readers, will vote, using the Comments section below, on whether you think it will be a boy or girl. Depending on which sex receives the most votes (as of midnight on Wednesday 27th January), the Betting Challenge will lay a bet of £30 at the odds specified.

If any of you are thinking that this is some pathetic act of randomness -- in which you wish to take no part -- you're wrong: there's genuine form on offer here. But before we examine that form, one more thing. The bet will be settled at birth. Hopefully the result will be obvious then. Of course, we still have to close the voting on Wednesday: we don't want some corrupt midwife acting on inside information and ripping us all off.

To that evidence... A no doubt wholly unreliable internet site reckons that "male" sperm are faster than "female" sperm; but that the "males" have no endurance. Imagine, if you will, a mass of tiny Usain Bolts and Paula Radcliffes, launched toward their goal: one expecting to reach it in 10 seconds; the other reckoning on two hours. If, so the theory goes, sex coincides precisely with ovulation, Usain wins every time. But if hanging around is required, Paula prevails. Hopefully not relieving herself on route.

So how close to ovulation did we manage? I really don't know. All I will say is this: I doubt Paula's coach makes her exercise as many times a day as I was expected to back then; so there has to be a good chance Usain was able to time his run to perfection.

The same website also claims that: "Penetration should be deep at the moment of ejaculation in order to give the males a headstart." Now I honestly can't remember how "deep" or otherwise penetration was. I would ask my wife, but I imagine her definition of "deep" might be different to mine.

Looking elsewhere, according to Stephen Fry, women who eat a lot of cereal for breakfast are more likely to have a boy. And my wife packs the cereal away like a pot-bellied pig with shares in Kelloggs.

What else? Well, a woman my wife works with reckons that boys move less in the womb. There's an obvious sisterhood sub-text here associating laziness with males, but we'll let it pass. There's been very little movement as of yet.

On the evidence we have, it's not looking good for a girl is it? The odds will have to reflect that. So this week's bet is as follows:

EITHER

£30 Lay of Baby Houghton being a boy at [1.70]

OR

£30 Lay of Baby Houghton being a girl at [2.40]

The choice is yours. Please cast your votes -- and rationale -- below.

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1. James Hipwell | 27 February 2010

   Jack - this is sick but I love it! Tenner says it's a girl.

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