Golden Globes Betting: Why Goebbel's theory is good news for Mamma Mia

Other / Richard Douglas / 09 January 2009 / 1 Comments

Does economic downturn make it likely that the gongs will go to feelgood, throwaway films? Will it all be Happy-Go-Lucky on Sunday night and has Mickey Rourke body-slammed his way into contention? Richard Walker discusses the nominations for the 66th Golden Globes.

Joseph Goebbels may have been one of the nastiest Nazis who ever walked the planet but he did know a bit about movies.

At the start of his spell as Hitler's Minister of Propaganda, he ordered Germany's filmmakers to produce the most lavish, over-the-top musicals they could.

Goebbels figured, quite correctly, that a horribly impoverished population needed pure, unadulterated escapism. And, while the people hummed the tunes and marvelled at the glamour, he slipped in his vile fascist message.

For legal reasons I must point out that Abba neither hold nor have held any affiliation to the Nazi party. (There's a sentence I never thought I'd write). However Goebbels' theory makes Mamma Mia a reasonable punt for a couple of Golden Globes on Sunday.

The event is now in its 66th year and is considered a kind of wacky opener to 'Awards Season'. The prizes are decided by the 83 members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association. This is a small electorate of overseas journalists working in Los Angeles - which, after all, is the capital of Weirdville, USA - so perhaps we should not be surprised at the odd turn up in the betting.

Remember, they honoured Jim Carrey as Best Comic Actor in 1999 and Sacha Baron Coren in 2006. It took mainstream Hollywood a little longer to recognise their... er... talents.

Of the various markets available, the ones for Best Comedy/Musical and Best Actress in a Comedy/Musical are the tightest. Mamma Mia seems to have value in both. This feelgood, throwaway tale filled with big names blasting out the best of Benny and Bjorn has been filling cinemas all summer.

It is not exactly high art but it has been seen as the perfect antedote to these economically-challenged times.

In Bruges, a darkly comic caper starring Colin Farrell, is up there at [1.46] while the effervescent Happy-Go-Lucky is favourite ([1.36]) but Mamma Mia ([2.62]) has the popular push. And that may count for a lot.

Its star, Meryl Steep, is a Golden Globes favourite. The 59-year-old has 23 nominations and six wins - both records - so perhaps she should be shorter than [2.42] for the individual gong.

Sean Penn ([1.69]) is justifiably odds-on for Best Actor. The former bad boy has grown up to become a powerful character actor. His portrayal of gay politician Harvey Milk in 'Milk' has screamed 'award' ever since it premiered. However Hollywood loves a comeback and Mickey Rourke ([3.1]) has bodyslammed his way back into the reckoning with his browbeaten performance in The Wrestler.

Heath Ledger's ([1.09]) chances of picking of up a posthumous Golden Globe, and an Oscar for that matter, are about as rock solid as you'll find on Betfair. Admittedly the deceased actor was superb as the Joker in Dark Knight but goodwill and pity are expected to do the rest.

Slumdog Millionaire ([1.56]) is an enthralling romantic tale about an illiterate man who goes on the Indian version of Who Wants to be a Millionaire so he can re-kindle an old relationship. It is certain to top the UK box office when it is released later this year. However The Curious Case of Benjamin Button is well thought of despite running at [4.4] in the Best Film market. Based on a story by F Scott Fitzgerald, Brad Pitt plays a man who is born an octogenarian and ages backwards.

Those films also lead the way in the Best Director award. Danny Boyle ([1.76]) - of Trainspotting, The Beach, 28 Days Later - took the chair for Slumdog Millionaire while David Fincher ([3.15]) - of Fight Club, Seven and Panic Room - made Benjamin Button.

Finally, let's turn to the Best Supporting Actress prize. Viola Davis ([4.2]) put in an outstanding performance in Doubt, a tale of immorality and struggle set in a New York church during the 60s. However, if yours truly was handing out the awards, Marisa Tomei ([11.5]) was perfectly cast as a heart-of-gold stripper in The Wrestler. She famously pulled off a huge Oscar surprise a few years ago by winning in the same category for My Cousin Vinny.

To be honest, this entire market will be a tough call for anyone, especially in Britain where many of these films are yet to come out. However, if you have gut-feeling about a movie these are the awards to punt on. Tomei's was one of the few recent Oscars from way out in left-field. The Golden Globes are a different animal.

And that unpredictability might just mean you are blubbing tears of joy aswell when the winners make their acceptance speeches on Sunday.

Comments (1)

1. David Stewart | 09 January 2009

   Agree Meryl Streep a good bet.

   The winner takes it all.