Golden Globes Betting: Tread carefully on the red carpet

Other / Richard Douglas / 15 January 2010 / Leave a Comment

James Cameron could win with Avatar and collect a personal award for Best Director

"The sheer game-changing visual extravagance of Avatar [1.78] and its green message mean it may just pip Up in the Air for Best Drama in arguably the tightest two-horse race on the night. Cameron is also in with a shout for best director [4.5]."

The Golden Globes are famous for sprining surprises, says Richard Douglas. So punters will need to do their research if they are to snap up some glorious value...

Ricky Gervais is presenting the 67th Golden Globe Awards on Sunday night.
Fact.

The appointment of the British comedian is entirely in keeping with the left-field tone of an evening that traditionally opens the award season. Like the Oscars, the electorate for these prizes the 83 members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association - is small but influential. While it is seen as an indicator for the aforementioned Academy Awards, the Golden Globes are famous for springing a surprise.

Therefore wise punter treads this particular red carpet with caution.

The film with the most nominations is Up in the Air. Jason Reitman's picture has gone done well with critics and audiences alike in the US. In the film George Clooney plays Ryan Bingham, a career transition counsellor; aka a man who flies around the country doing the firing that company bosses are too scared to undertake. His aviating exploits are threatened by a new online video system so Bingham takes action.

The market says Up in the Air is a shoo-in for Best Drama ([1.78]) and strongly fancied for Best Screenplay but elsewhere its chances are much slimmer. For example its two nominees as Best Supporting Actress, Anna Kendrick [9.2] and Vera Farmiga [15.5], will have no need for Brasso on Monday morning. Reitman [4.1] is certainly in mix as best director while Clooney [2.08] is well backed in the Best Actor (Drama) category. In the latter category he faces strong competition from Jeff Bridges [2.8] in Crazy Heart and Colin Firth [9.2] in a Single Man but charisma counts for a lot in the vote. Stick with the eyebrows.

Rather confusingly, Nine has five nominations. This musical comedy about a film director suffering mid-life crisis has its two leads Daniel Day-Lewis [1.82] and Marion Cotillard [6.8] tipped for gongs in their respective acting categories. The Irishman looks unbackably short so do not discount Robert Downey Junior [6] for his performance in Sherlock Holmes, the Guy Ritchie film you are allowed to like.

The market fancies Nine [1.77] even more strongly in the Best Comedy/Musical category. But there is a theory that this new take on Federico Fellini's 8 1/2 is slightly out of step with the prevailing mood in Hollywood and may miss out entirely. It could happen.

In contrast, there has been a buzz around Avatar ever since it launched. You think it just has to carry off at least one of its four nominations. The question is which one? James Cameron directed this tale of a crippled war veteran who is torn between his orders and his new planet. The sheer game-changing visual extravagance of Avatar ([1.78]) and its green message mean it may just pip Up in the Air for Best Drama in arguably the tightest two-horse race on the night. Cameron is also in with a shout for best director [4.5].

However, it is widely expected that he will miss out to his ex-wife. Kathryn Bigelow [1.85] seems to have that crucial commodity, momentum, behind her right now. However, just one note of caution, only one female director has won a Golden Globe Barbra Streisand for Yentl in 1983. It is somewhat ironic therefore that Bigelow's film, the Hurt Locker, is seen as a man's film. It depicts the pressure on an elite bomb squad sent out to enemy city. The film took a paltry $11 million in box office, whereas Avatar reaped $400m but critics, particularly those in the Golden Globes, sometimes revel in avoiding the mainstream.

In fact, if It's Complicated [8.8] takes the Best Musical/Comedy award then this may be seen as the Year of the Woman. Nancy Meyers directed Meryl Streep and Alec Baldwin in the story of a divorced couple who hook up again. It was seen as pretty low-brow fare in the UK so I'll leave it to you to decide what that says about the comedic differences across the pond.

You have to think that the market has correctly predicted Monique [1.22] and Christoph Waltz [1.14] will pick up their respective genders prizes for supporting roles.

However, it seems to have underestimated the Hurt Locker [4.3] in the Best Screenplay category. It is not that far behind Up in the Air [1.99] and Quentin Tarantino's Inglorious Basterds [1.92] in the critics' thinking.

If there was a Best Title section, I would have suspended the market once the latter film came out. However, as I said, the real Golden Globes are much more tricky to predict. Do your research well otherwise there will be worse expletives than that coming out of your mouth on Sunday night.