Other / Maxliu / 29 January 2010 / 1

Max Liu believes that the South London rapper could stop a Florence and the Machine clean sweep. There's value to be had where the likes of Rhianna and Jay-Z are concerned, while the Gallagher brothers dominate a three-decade snooze fest...

If there was an award for best debut novel of the year and I was judging it, it would go to David Vann's Legend of a Suicide.

I know Florence Welch likes Legend' because Vann has a blurb from her where she says she read his book, loved it, went straight back to the beginning and read it again. So I like Flo. And I like her even more for not winning the Mercury Music Prize when I backed Speech Debelle at [15.5] in September.

Florence was favourite to win the Mercury but, undeterred at missing out, she kicked on, selling out arenas and, in a quiet year, capturing whatever discernible zeitgeist there was; as a result she's [1.58] favourite to win Best British Album.

One shudders to speculate at Kasabian's reading habits and, although their ape-rock has now achieved Sky Sports trailer status, they're too short at [3.5]. As is Paolo Nutini at [6.0] - his voice on Sunny Side Up is as affected as Daniel Day Lewis' performance in My Left Foot and I think it's fair to say I have a Nutini-allergy!

Lilly Allen might be worth a small wager at [9.0] but Dizzee Rascal stands out at [15.5] - the South London rapper signalled his intention to move into the mainstream with Tongue N Cheek, his most radio-friendly album yet, and he should be backed.

That Dizzee can simultaneously be the outsider in the album market and [1.71] favourite for Best British Male underlines how much women dominated pop in 2009. Lily [2.22] edges out Flo [2.26] in the Female market but Duffy did the Album/Female double last year and I'm backing Flo to do the same. Speaking of last year, the breakthrough Brit that the flame-haired one won in 2008 could go to Friendly Fires [19.0] this time round - they gathered momentum in the build-up to the Mercury announcement so could offer trade-out potential here. Otherwise, La Roux appeals at [6.2].

The impossibly bad Muse are [2.34] for Best British Group - healthy odds for a gimme. I hope I'm wrong, I'll happily lose my money and see the award go to somebody else - preferably Doves [17.5] - but it's unlikely. Still, can't lose when you look at it like that.

Lady Gaga straddles global bandwagons with aplomb - hence her small price to be Best International Female at [1.13]. She's got that naff that it's ok to like vibe about her - Facebook abounds with status updates like, "I know it's wrong but I love Lady Gaga!" I do wonder where such un-thinking would have got us in the Warsaw ghettos but that, I'm told, is not the point. Yeah, Gaga's alright. If you're an idiot! If you're not, try Rhianna at [6.2].

Lady G is [2.32] for Best International Album but faces more serious competition from Jay-Z than odds of [8.0] suggests. Jigga is a shoo-in for Best International Male at [1.3]. I really, really want it to be Bruce Springsteen [8.0] but as long as it's not Mr Authenticity himself, Seasick Steve [9.4], who cares? Michael Buble is the [4.1] snake in the grass.

Finally, Oasis lead the Album of 30 Years market at [2.8]. Commentators have complained that this year's nominees are the safest in Brits history but the hodge-podge of coffee-table/Dad rock bores for the Album of 30 Years - Dire Straits, Dido, Keane - is testament to the enduring irrelevance of the awards. All the more reason to liven up proceedings with a few wagers then...

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1. Your Taste in Music is S**t | 29 January 2010

   I bet you wear a suit and trainers when you go out on a Friday night. Tit.

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