Oscars / The Betfair Contrarian / 17 February 2009 /

The Contrarian climbs into the ring to tell you why The Wrestler is in for a bout of disappointment on Sunday night.

While the Academy loves to reward actors playing damaged goods, they are less enthusiastic about garlanding actors who bring the damage on stage with them. Those backing Mickey Rourke to win Best Actor at [1.57] on Betfair are hoping that the Academy will be too moved by his comeback story to resist. The Contrarian, however, expects heads to rule hearts and is adamant that Sean Penn is too big to resist at [3.3].

Biopic actors have been successful in recent years

In three of the last six years, the Best Actor gong has been landed by someone playing the lead role of a biopic: Adrien Brody in The Pianist, Jamie Foxx in Ray, Phillip Seymour Hoffman in Capote. In addition, Forest Whitaker's win two years ago came for his performance as Ugandan dictator Idi Amin in The Last King of Scotland, which was not a biopic but was based on factual events of Amin's rule. This trend hands the initiative to Penn, who is nominated for his performance as Harvey Milk, the first openly gay representative elected to US public office, in the biopic Milk.

Rourke is too old to win

The oldest winner of the Best Actor Oscar over the last ten years was Daniel Day Lewis at fifty, six years younger than Rourke is now. Only one actor over fifty - Jack Nicholson - has won in the last 15 years. He is also the only actor over the age of 55 to have won since Paul Newman did it for The Color of Money in 1986.

His Wrestlemania plans won't be well received

Rourke declared his interest in fighting wrestler Chris Jericho at the WWE's Wrestlemania and the actor was "confronted" by him on Larry King Live. It was widely speculated that the Academy would not approve of Rourke using his role in The Wrestler to earn a pay day so his publicist has issued a statement denying he would appear. The damage may have already been done, however, and speculation is rife that Rourke intends to resume his involvement with the WWE after the Oscars.

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