Oscars / The Betfair Contrarian / 17 February 2009 /

With the red carpet ready to be unfurled on Sunday, the Contrarian turns his attention to the 81st Annual Academy Awards and tells us why Kate Winslet will not win the Best Actress award.

The Contrarian loves nothing more than to see a favourite in tears, although it doesn't quite work at the Oscars, where they fill up whatever happens. In the past, lovely Kate Winslet has used the Oscars to perfect her "losing face" but despite a history of snubs, the English Rose is [1.49] favourite to win Best Actress this year for her role in The Reader. The Contrarian's not having it, however, and here's why she won't be blubbing for the public:

Brits are unpopular in this category

Just one of the last 15 actresses to win in this category hailed from the UK and that was Helen Mirren, who won two years ago. In the last five years alone Samantha Morton, Naomi Watts (half-Australian), Judi Dench, Keira Knightly and Julie Christie have all joined Kate Winslet in being nominated only to be ignored on prize day.

The Reader is coming under strong criticism

Two authoritative Holocaust experts last week publicly demanded that The Reader misses out at the Oscars. Mark Weitzman labelled it "Holocaust revisionism" while Explaining Hitler author Ron Rosenbaum has called it "the worst Holocaust film ever made." Winslet's character, who learns to read in a bid for redemption after locking 300 Jewish women in a burning church, was singled out for criticism. Rosenbaum said that the film "asks us to empathise with an unrepentant mass murderer" and implies that "illiteracy is something more to be ashamed of than participating in mass murder."

And the Academy is fond of snubbing Winslet

Winslet's latest Best Actress nomination makes her the first-ever actress to have challenged for six Academy Awards by the age of 33. However, she has always been denied, missing out on Best Actress three times previously and Best Supporting Actress twice. An indication that she will be ignored again comes from the fact her performance in Revolutionary Road, which won Best Actress (Drama) at the Golden Globes, was snubbed completely by the Academy this year, making it the first ever winner of that award not to make the Oscars shortlist. If she's not going to win for her best performance, why would she win for another one?

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