Oscars / Richard Douglas / 09 February 2009 /

The Baftas have been and the Brit actress picked up another award, but Richard Douglas thinks the Academy may tire of Kate when the gongs are handed out in Hollywood.

Kate Winslet has maybe won more publicity for her acceptance speeches this year than her acting.

The 33-year-old breathlessly forgot Angelina Jolie's name when collecting a Golden Globe in January for playing Hanna Schmitz in The Reader. On Sunday she was more sedate, but no less emotional when she collected a Bafta for the same part.

Interestingly, the latter had been for an actress in a leading role while the former, and the Screen Actors Guild gong handed out in between, were for supporting actress.

Winslet seems to be sweeping the board at the awards ceremonies at the moment and is running at a red-hot [1.71] to take the Oscar for leading actress on February 22. However the value lies elsewhere.

On collecting her prize, the Titanic actress said: "To be given this award at home means a great deal to me."

Do not be surprised if the American Academy redress the balance. Jolie has been mentioned in the same breath as Winslet for every award. Mrs Brad Pitt is up for Changeling, a story about a woman who believes she is reunited with the wrong son by police after he goes missing.

She seems way overpriced at [23.0]. Since Mamma Mia, the delightful yet disposable ABBA musical, has been ignored you suspect Meryl Streep [5.1] will miss out too while there is little buzz around Anne Hathaway [5.2] and Melissa Leo [36.0]. If Winslet does weary the Academy, Jolie may step in.

Traditionally, the Golden Globes were seen as the best indicator of Oscar success. However, they are now throwing up increasingly erratic results and the Baftas seem to offer more clues. Remember the British awards used to follow the Oscars but now proceed them. As ever the best suggestion of its importance in filmland is who turns up. On Sunday, the roll call included A-listers such as Pitt, Jolie, Winslet, Penelope Cruz, Marissa Tomei, Ron Howard and Danny Boyle.

Oscar voting is very human. Just under 6,000 members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences are included in the ballot. And they are very parochial at times. Many an actor has won a trophy for being 'deserving' rather than getting their desserts for that particular film.

Slumdog Millionaire dominated the Baftas. It received seven awards in total including best director, best film and adapted screenplay. Not bad for a film that lost its US distributor just before Christmas and was in some danger of going straight to DVD. Is this an indication it does not play that well in America?

Certainly it seems that word of mouth has been behind Slumdog's rise, the critics only climbed aboard this runaway success after it was already moving.

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - a film that sees Pitt play a man who is born elderly and ages backwards - received the most nominations stateside with 13.

Both academies nominated the same five titles in the Best Film category. And there is every expectation that Slumdog Millionaire [1.25] will pip Benjamin Button [6.6] again.

However, were that to happen, there may be a desire to reward the director of the latter film, David Fincher [6.0], with the top individual prize rather than Danny Boyle [1.23].

Interestingly, Wall-E has has received six nominations - tied with Beauty and the Beast as the most ever for an animated feature. The environmental tale about a lonely robot was strongly considered as a contender in the Best Film category but failed to get the nomination. Considering no animation has received one of those since 1991, it worth backing Wall-E to do well. Perhaps it can pip Milk ([1.2]) in the Original Screenplay category. The price is currently running at [2.0 and is coming in.

The price on Penelope Cruz picking up Best Supporting Actress came in to [1.66] after her victory in the Baftas.

The British academy also rewarded Heath Ledger as Best Supporting Actor and Mickey Rourke as Best Actor. It hard to see the Oscars going anywhere else. Hollywood loves a back story and the former has sadly passed away since playing the Joker in Dark Knight while, according to his Bafta acceptance speech, Rourke was coming back after "f*****g up his career for 15 years".

If his plastic surgery will let him, the star of The Wrestler may just shed a tear when collecting his award on Oscar night.

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