Oscars / Chicken Dinner / 19 February 2008 / Leave a comment

Who'll be making the weepy speeches? Chickendinner run through the leading candidates and the lively outsiders

With just five days to go until the opening of the envelopes, the race for Best Actor now looks completely nailed on for Daniel Day-Lewis [1.11 to win on Betfair].

Tim Gray, editor of the Hollywood trade bible Variety has posted a video on the Variety website to say that his performance in There Will Be Blood has simply blown away the opposition this year. And Mr Day-Lewis has won pretty much everything he's been nominated for in association with this film.

But don't forget that the Oscars do tend to throw up an upset or two. As recently as 2002 Daniel Day-Lewis was tipped for the prize for his turn as Bill the Butcher in Martin Scorcese's Gangs of New York, but on that occasion lost out to a good performance by a far less accomplished actor (Adrien Brody in The Pianist). The only nominee who seems capable of an upset would be George Clooney [21.0] - a massive Hollywood favourite, with his chiselled jaw and daring political agenda - while Johnny Depp's performance as Sweeney Todd didn't sell as many tickets and confused many who went expecting horror and got a musical.

In Depp's favour, however, is his age: in the last ten years, the average age of the winning actor has been 42, at 44 Depp would be the closest.

Other possible upsets could be located in the Supporting Actor category, which has long been the stomping ground of this year's supposed shoo-in, Javier Bardem [1.11] - people have been going bananas for his menacing turn in No Country for Old Men. This is the same category that Eddie Murphy (Dreamgirls) was supposed to win last year, Tom Cruise in 1999 (Magnolia), and Samuel L Jackson (Pulp Fiction) famously mouthed a very rude word on losing out to Martin Landau in 1994.

The Academy often favours something a little more subtle to go alongside a massive dramatic turn, meaning Casey Affleck's creepy Robert Ford [12.0], or Hal Holbrook's [22.0] weepy old man (Into The Wild) could sneak it. Big Best Actor performances have tended to go hand in hand with quieter Supporting Actors (Russell Crowe, Gladiator, and Benicio Del Torro, Traffic, 2000; Denzel Washington, Training Day, and Jim Broadbent, Iris, 2001). But one school of logic insists that Bardem was moved down a category to avoid clashing with Day-Lewis, so it would be a shock for them both not to win.

Other unusual Oscar facts worth noting are that Julie Christie's [1.6] bid could be threatened by her hair colour. She would only be the fourth silver-haired winner ever (after Geraldine Page, 1985, Out of Africa; Jessica Tandy, 1989, Driving Miss Daisy; and Helen Mirren, last year, The Queen), and even if she considers herself a blonde, the gong has been swiped by brunettes 46 times of a possible 79. Might this favour Marion Cotillard [3.5] or Ellen Page [10.0]?

And as a last reminder as to how the judges are not immune to overlooking quality entertainment in favour of a heavy dose of sentimentality, in 1996, the Coen Brothers missed out on the Best Picture Oscar (for the brilliant Fargo) to the mawkish English Patient (most in kind to this year's Atonement [14.0]). Eek.

Tags: Daniel Day Lewis, Javier Bardem, Julie Christie, No Country For Old Men, Oscars