Oscars / Chicken Dinner / 23 January 2009 / 2 Comments

The signs don't look good for Golden Globe winners, biopics and American political dramas. So who does stand a chance of winning Best Pciture at this year's Oscars?

Last year, none of the five Best Picture nominees was among the year's top 30 box office releases at the time of the nominations and major nominees haven't included bona fide blockbusters at the U.S. box office in the last four years. So The Dark Knight - the highest grossing film of the year, raking in over $500 million in the process shouldn't feel too surprised it's been ignored.

Of the nominees, The Curious Benjamin Button [4.0 on Betfair] made the most at the box office, grossing over $100million in the process. Despite a long list of acclaimed performances, no film starring Brad Pitt has ever won the award. He came closest last year when Babel was nominated.

The producers of Milk [6.0] should definitely stay at home - only one biopic has picked up the best picture award in the last 20 years (A Beautiful Mind). In the last few years, Capote, The Aviator and even the multi-garlanded Ray were also overlooked.

The producers of Frost/Nixon [11.0] shouldn't get too excited either - films about American politics generally receive a chilly response in the Best Picture category too (another reason not to bet on Milk). The last American political film to win was All the King's Men in 1949 not even All the President's Men (1976) made it. Rocky (Rocky!) won that year.

Unlike in other categories, the Golden Globe results have a better record of picking who won't win. Only three of the last eight Golden Globe Best Picture winners have won the Oscar equivalent - mildly sobering news for Danny Boyle's Slumdog Millionaire [1.21]. And five of the last six Golden Globe Best Director award winners have failed to win Best Picture at the Oscars.

In Slumdog Millionaire's favour, it is probably the most violent of the five nominees, and although last year's winner No Country for Old Men makes it look like the Teletubbies, the last five winners (No Country, the Departed, Crash, Lord of the Rings and Million Dollar Baby) have all had their fair share of blood.

As for The Reader [13.0], that film's chances of winning seem to have been scuppered by Kate Winslet winning best actress at this year's Golden Globes. Since 1980 the film starring the Globes' Best Actress has only won the Best Picture Oscar once (Jennifer Connelly in A Beautiful Mind.)