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Oscars 2009 Betting: Rourke's got the Leading Actor award in a half-nelson

Oscars RSS / Chicken Dinner / 22 January 2009 /

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Mickey Rourke's resurrection seems sealed - he's a firm favourite to lift the best actor award. Chicken Dinner run through the nominees and their likely chances.

Mickey Rourke is widely expected to land his first Oscar after picking up the Best Actor award at the Golden Globes for his performance as washed-up grappler Randy "The Ram" Robinson in The Wrestler. In each of the last five years, one of the Golden Globe winners (Drama/Musical or Comedy) has picked up an Academy Award to go with it.

The Best Actor award almost inevitably goes to larger-than-life characters who give their all yet fail. It also feels like an insurance policy that Rourke's own spectacular fall from Hollywood grace - not to mention the bashed-in face so closely shadows the plot of the movie. If the celluloid suffering isn't enough, the real thing should help the judges make their mind up.

His main rival Sean Penn is nominated for his portrayal of Harvey Milk, the first openly gay representative elected to US public office, in Gus Van Sant's biopic Milk. Penn has been up for Best Actor four times in the past, but his only win came for his part in Mystic River five years ago. The fact that Penn is by far the best actor nominated probably won't help him past Rourke's more memorable performance.

Actors playing the title role in biographical films have triumphed in four of the last six years, but it's hard to imagine people voting for politicians when there are wrestlers on the ballot.

In each of the last three years one film has produced Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor nominations (Brokeback Mountain, Blood Diamond and Michael Clayton) and each time both nominees have left empty-handed. Penn's co-star Josh Brolin has been nominated.

Richard Jenkins is on the shortlist for playing Walter Vale in The Visitor, but not since Roberto Benigni in 1998 has anyone won the Best Actor Oscar without first being nominated for the Golden Globes as well.

Frank Langella is nominated for his portrayal of Richard Nixon in Frost/Nixon, but four previous portrayals of US presidents have been nominated without winning, including Anthony Hopkins' Nixon in 1995.

Brad Pitt has received his first ever nomination for his performance as Benjamin Button in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, but was a huge pre-nomination outsider. No Oklahoman has ever won the award.

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