Oscars Betting 2009: Will Penelope cruise it to the Best Supporting Actress crown?

Oscars / Chicken Dinner / 23 January 2009 / Leave a Comment

Cruz's performance in Vicky Cristina Barcelona has shot her to the top of the betting. But what all of all the other (almost) leading ladies? Chicken Dinner fill you in.

Only eight of the last 16 Golden Globe winners in this category also got to sob an Oscar acceptance speech and that barren spell will continue after Kate Winslet's performance in The Reader got upgraded into the Best Actress category. The four actresses that were shortlisted alongside Winslet at the Globes - Amy Adams (Doubt), Penelope Cruz (Vicky Cristina Barcelona), Viola Davis (Doubt) and Marisa Tomei (The Wrestler) are in the hunt, alongside Taraji P Henson (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button).

Cruz ([1.88]) is the overwhelming favourite, but she was a contender for Best Actress two years ago and only once in the last nine years has someone won Best Supporting Actress after previously being up for the more prestigious award. And over that period only one actress featuring in a film set outside the USA has triumphed (Rachel Weisz in The Constant Gardener).

However, three of the last four successful actresses were born outside the USA and Cruz's only competition on that front is outsider Adams. Vicky Cristina Barcelona won Best Musical or Comedy at the Golden Globes and that offers a good foundation for Oscars' Supporting Actress success.

Over the last decade supporting actresses from Shakespeare in Love, Chicago and Dreamgirls have all triumphed after their films won that category at the Globes.

Marisa Tomei ([5.4]) was victorious in this category 16 years ago (for My Cousin Vinny) but the chances of her winning for her performance as Cassidy in The Wrestler are severely hindered by the spotlight-stealing turn of her co-star Mickey Rourke. He is the favourite to land the Best Actor gong and it's been 19 years since the Best Supporting Actress starred in the same film as the winner of that award.

Two actresses from the same film have been nominated in this category four times previously this decade and on three of those occasions both left empty-handed. That trend doesn't bode well for Davis [5.7] and Adams [14] who had the bad luck to share the same movie. Adams missed out on Best Supporting Actress three years ago to Rachel Weisz.

Taraji P Henson [8.4] has been included for her part as Queenie in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. Only two of the last fifteen Oscar winners in this category weren't also nominated at the Golden Globes.