Oscars / Chicken Dinner / 23 January 2009 / Leave a comment

Can any one of the stellar nominees defy the odds and pip the late Heath Ledger to the Best Supporting Actor oscar? Chicken Dinner doubt it.

Heath Ledger [1.08] is the overwhelming favourite to win Best Supporting Actor for his turn as The Joker in The Dark Knight. The Australian, who died of an accidental overdose last January, would become the first posthumous Oscar winner since Peter Finch won Best Actor for his role as Howard Beale in Network 32 years ago.

Finch is the only successful posthumous nominee out of six actors and actresses that have tried. Ralph Richardson was the only other man to have previously been in contention from beyond the grave, but he missed out in 1984 to Haing S. Ngor in The Killing Fields.

Ledger was victorious at the Golden Globes and six of the last eight Globe winners have repeated their success at the Oscars. Should he win he will be the first Australian winner as well as the first victor under the age of thirty since Cuba Gooding Jr. triumphed in 1996 for his performance in Jerry Maguire.

Josh Brolin [7.0] has been nominated for his portrayal of Dan White in Milk but his co-star Sean Penn has also been nominated for Best Actor and in each of the last three years, whenever actors from one film have been up for the top two awards they have both been left disappointed.

Phillip Seymour Hoffman [10.0] is nominated in this category for the second year running, this time for playing Father Brendan Flynn in Doubt. In this category, no one who has missed out after being shortlisted one year has ever come back to win the next.
Michael Shannon [13.0] is in contention for his turn as John Givings in Revolutionary Road but wasn't nominated at the Golden Globes. In seventeen of the last nineteen years the Oscar winner had already been on the shortlist at the Globes.

While actors from comedy-dramas occasionally win this award, such as Alan Arkin for his role as Edwin Hoover in Little Miss Sunshine two years ago, Robert Downey Jr.'s [20.0] nomination for his performance in Hollywood satire Tropic Thunder comes as a surprise. As the odds suggest, he stands next to no chance of winning the award. The Academy understandably rarely rewards zany films.