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Oscars 2008 Betting Update: Only certainty is Myleene won't get one

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The mischievous Bafta judges showed this week that awards don't always go to the favourites. ChickenDinner picks out some tasty outside bets

There were one or two shocks at Sunday night's Baftas. What the hell were Matt Willis and Myleene Klass doing there? And didn't Tilda Swinton say something rude when she won for Best Supporting Actress? She wasn't the only one - no one saw that one coming.

Everything was supposed to go to plan: Day-Lewis, blah blah; Coen Brothers, blah-di-blah; Cate Blanchett, whistle whistle; Julie Christie, scratchy nose, honk honk; Atonement; Javier Bardem; good night, god bless.

But no. The Bafta people decided to mix it up and get creative. Marion Cotillard (La Vie en Rose) obviously hadn't planned a speech (or if she had, she shouldn't have, it was rubbish), because Julie Christie felt like a lock for Best Actress. Cate Blanchett's Bob Dylan impression felt like a cert for Best Supporting Actress, only the award went to the rank outsider, Tilda Swinton, instead.

Hence, the Oscars have been thrown into disarray.

The Best Supporting Actress category is by far the most difficult to call, with ALL of the nominees in with a chance. Cate Blanchett, [2.38] to win, has been the favourite from the start, and has big name backing from the Oscar predictors at Variety magazine and the New York Post. But a shadow of doubt has descended, mainly based on the watery reception of the film she was nominated for - I'm Not There - which is so pretentious, even the most artistic east London loft dweller would struggle to sit through it.

Ruby Dee, [5.5], the old biddy in American Gangster has long been a civil rights activist (a personal friend of Martin Luther King and Malcolm X), and being old (in her early 80s) and mouthy, she could make for a great winning speech. Amy Ryan [3.25] (for Gone Baby Gone) is also fancied. Her performance as the junkie mother of a missing child has not been seen on these shores (too close to the Madeleine McCann case), but all the big critics in America are cooing about it, and she is running Cate Blanchett seriously close in most markets. Both USA Today and Entertainment Tonight think the statuette is hers.

But they shouldn't speak too soon - five of the last six Best Supporting Actresses have won a Bafta AND the Oscar (Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls, last year; Cate Blanchett, The Aviator, 2005; Renee Zellweger, Cold Mountain, 2004; Catherine Zeta Jones, Chicago, 2003; Jennifer Connelly, A Beautiful Mind, 2002), which would suggest a Tilda Swinton [17.0] victory.

Saoirse Ronan [23.0] is the other nominee, for Atonement. At 13, she'd be the youngest winner in the category since Anna Paquin in 1993, although children rarely win, and when they do it is for stealing the show, unlike Miss Ronan, hence her lengthy price.

As for the leading actresses, it's tight between Marion Cotillard [3.6] and Julie Christie [1.56] with both picking up a Best Actress Golden Globe (Cotillard for musical/comedy, Christie for drama), while Cotillard took the Bafta to Christie's Screen Actors Guild prize. Only four women have snared both the Academy Best Actress and the Bafta awards in the last ten years. The four who won, Helen Mirren (The Queen, last year); Reese Witherspoon (Walk The Line, 2005); Nicole Kidman (The Hours, 2003) and Julia Roberts (Erin Brockovich, 2001) all played real people, which must encourage Marion Cotillard, who plays Edith Piaf. Julie Christie plays a fictional character - a woman with Alzheimer's - in Away from Her, but in her favour, the Screen Actors Guild have correctly fingered ten of the last twelve Best Actress Oscar winners.

Legendary Hollywood film critic, Roger Ebert has pinned his colours on Ellen Page [8.8] in Juno. He is the very same man who picked Crash to be Best Picture in 2005, and Shakespeare In Love in 1998 - both completely unexpected victories.