Mercury Music Prize / maxliu / 12 August 2009 / Leave a comment

The Mercury Music Prize shortlist is full of predictable surprises, says Maxwell Liu. But after tipping last year's winners, who is our man putting his money on this time around?

"At 3.65 there's something to good to be true about FATM's chances and I expect them to suffer the same fate as Bat for Lashes in 2007. But remember, the Mercury likes debuts - 11 of the 17 winners have been first albums."

Bookies' favourites Doves were never going to "do an Elbow" by winning this year's Mercury Music Prize precisely because Elbow "did an Elbow" by winning last year's Mercury Music Prize.

After 17 years, you'd expect us to expect the unexpected from the judges. But no, the message boards are abuzz with discontented Lilly Allen and Manics (urgh) fans. Who really cares? The shortlist is not a definitive 12 best albums of the year; despite the sales boost winning provides, the Mercury neither reflects nor dicatates the zeitgeist. Rather than tell us what people are listening to, it tells us what the judges are listening to.

None of this means it would be ok if Kasabian won. West Ryder Pauper Lunatic Asylum's guitars are occasionally druggy in a cool Velvet Underground way but Tom Meighan's anti-lyrics typify his band's lack of imagination. Kasabian make a grand fetish of lad rock ballsiness but there is nothing bold about them. And giving an album a stupid title doesn't prove that a band aren't morons; Kasabian's hour upon the stage must not be prologoned. At [17.5] punters don't think it will be.

Florence and the Machine's Lungs is the big favourite at [3.65]. Florence's rise is further testament to the Glastonbury effect. Striding about the John Peel Stage in little black shorts, Florence gave the type of unit-shifting performance that captures the attention of those watching the BBC's coverage at home. As on record, the Machine supplied the pulsating rythmns for her haughty indie soul yowl and Lungs spent five weeks at number two in the charts.

Elbow's momentum last year can be traced back to Glastonbury but they entered the market as [8.2] outsiders - when I tipped them - and I don't think the judges will favour the jolly this time. There's something too good to be true about FATM's chances and I expect them to suffer the same fate as Bat for Lashes in 2007. But remember, the Mercury likes debuts - 11 of the 17 winners have been first albums.

Natasha Khan's crew are back on the list at [7.8]. I like the price and am tempted to back them for a moment of Mercury redemption but, though Natasha does strike me as a delightful young woman, Two Suns is poor and doesn't deserve to be on the list. I was listening to Under the Ivy - B side from Kate Bush's Running Up That Hill - the other day. Afterwards, I thought about the likes of Bat for Lashes and wondered, why bother?

I've never been convinced of Glasvegas [17.5] either. James Allan has a way with broken homes and love on the dole and a big quiff is always a welcome sight (why wasn't Morrissey nominated?) but it's a grim album and many believe guitars will miss out this year. Steer clear and apply the same to those rotters the Horrors at [8.6].

La Roux [11.5] is pure midlist, the product of a conspiracy whereby a mainstream artist brings coverage in exchange for credility the way that Adele did a couple of years ago. A Friendly Fires [8.2] win would annoy in the way the Klaxons' did.

I can't see token folkie Lisa Hannigan coming in at [11.5] but I like her alliterative album title Sea Sew just as Led Bib appeal to me on a phonetic level. They've been called the British TV On The Radio. You wish. More like the jazz funk flunkies (Watermelon Beat) who hogged the practice rooms at my sixth form. But I'll put a couple of quid on at [70.0].

Sweet Billy Pilgrim are named after a character in Slaughterhouse Five [32.0]. Which is a good book. It's been said that this could be the year that an obscure nominee lands the prize so consider a small floater on post-rock vets the Invisible at [30.0].

And now - ragga drum roll, please - my tip for this year's Mercury Music Prize, which will be announced on September 8, is... Speech Debelle. Speech Therapy is a fearless, majestic and vulnerable debut album from a 25-year-old South London rapper who could well be 2009's Dizzee Rascal. At [15.5] it will earn you a tidy sum.

Tags: Florence and the Machine, Glasvegas, La Roux, Led Bib, Mercury Music Prize Betting, The Invisible