Mercury Music Prize / maxliu / 23 July 2008 / Leave a comment

Thom Yorke and the boys are the early favourites in the volatile Mercury Music Prize market. About time too, says Max Liu.

After yesterday's announcement of this year's Nationwide Mercury Music Prize nominations Radiohead have been installed as favourites on Betfair to take the prize.

The nominations have inspired predictable controversy with music critics, bloggers, fans and industry insiders alike complaining of, amongst other things, female bias, male bias, record label conspiracy, obscurity and tokenism. One of the 12 judges has already hit back, urging people to lay off the prize designed to reward musical innovation, claiming "it's the taking part that counts."

Punters may disagree as they look to cash in on a prize which has a history of producing unlikely winners.

Long seen as an antidote to the commercially saturated Brit awards, the Mercury has traditionally aimed to give its £20,000 prize money to artists for whom such a sum would make a substantial difference. But this hasn't always been the case with previous winners including Franz Ferdinand, Arctic Monkeys and Pulp for critically acclaimed records with already impressive sales figures, generally regarded as obvious choices.

Wilful esotericism, though, is a charge consistently levelled at the Mercury, perhaps most famously in 1997 when Roni Size's Reprazent stole in ahead of Radiohead's OK Computer. But the Oxford quintet are [4.5] favourites on Betfair's Mercury Music Prize 2008 - Winner market .

And deservedly so. Having since been nominated for their 2004 album Hail to the Thief, the judge's failure to acknowledge their stratrospheric influence on contemporary music compares only to the Booker Prize panel's determination to ignore Martin Amis' contribution to English letters.

This year could be different. In Rainbows has been hailed as their best since OK Computer and the decision to intially release it as a download only for which fans could pay as much or little as they liked may tip it for them. This revolutionary act in music industry terms, is credited with taking power from the major labels and giving it back to artists. They are a good bet.

Alex Turner is only 22 but he has just received his third nomination. After winning the prize with Arctic Monkey's 2006 debut Whatever People Say I Am That's What I'm Not, Turner was nominated last year for the Arctic's follow-up. Now his side-project The Last Shadow Puppets are [9.4] to win this year.

One artist on the list who probably won't starve should he not triumph is Led Zeppelin frontman Robert Plant. Raising Sand, his collaboration with bluegrass singer Alison Krauss, is [10.5] to win.

As the lines between mainstream popularity and musical credibility blur, two singers who have achieved chart success in recent months have made it onto the list. Brit school alumnus Adele is [15.0] and Estelle is [15.5].

But the Mercury is an obsinate beast and should it dig its contrary heels in and opt for an outsider (as it did last year with The Klaxons) the smart money could yet be on County Durham folkstress Rachael Unthank for her excellent The Bairns. She is [18.0] on Betfair.

My own tip would be to back Mancunian progsters Elbow at [8.2]. The title of their fourth album, The Seldom Seen Kid, released in March, is a reference to their late singer-songwriter friend Bryan Glancy. The world is waking up to the magic of Elbow and the overdue garnering of a commercial success to match longstanding critical acclaim could be the music story of the year. Proof indeed, that nice guys don't always finish last. Perhaps, even, at the Mercury.

Tags: Adele, elbow, Estelle, Last Shadow Puppets, Mercury music Prize betting, Rachael Unthank, Radiohead, Robert Plant and Alison Krauss