For example, one learned commentator has written that, because 15 of 17 finalists to date have been male, female contestants only have a 12 per cent chance of reaching the final three. Okay, perhaps not that learned as it turns out. Leaving aside the poor maths (I make two out of 17 to be six per cent), is it really wise to make such declarations on the basis of such limited data? After all, a female has won one out of four shows. And if you include Pop Idol and Popstars: The Rivals, six females have filled the top-spot compared to just four males.

What's more, Shayne Ward looked like a girl and Leon Jackson was always crying like a girl. The only bona-fide male winner has been Will Young. And he was gay (in fact, I think he still is). Ah, the irony.

Before 2006, everyone's favourite reality show theory revolved around the impossibility of non-white winners. You see, as well as being sexist, viewers are racist. But not homophobic? These viewers are a fickle bunch. Then Leona Lewis won. She wasn't white (and still isn't), and unless something sinister lurked beneath those bespangled outfits she wore, she wasn't male either (and, I presume, still isn't).

Here's an X-Factor pronouncement for you. On the whole, talented and likeable contestants do better than less talented and less likeable ones. So ignore all these charlatans dishing out their seemingly scholarly advice. Just because they're wearing white coats, it doesn't make them dentists. All that's needed is an arbiter of talent and likeability. And, lucky for you, I'm here to help.

The most important thing is not to get involved too heavily, too early. We will know a lot more in a few weeks, and firm assertions at this point will likely prove inaccurate.

Judge Cheryl Cole has a very strong hand to play. First, she's incredibly fit. Second, her contestants are good-looking, talented, and will cover a range of viewer tastes. But [1.97] looks short at this stage; I'll be amazed if that price doesn't drift. Of the girls Alexandra has a lot of technical ability and will belt out numbers in a Leona-esque way. Whether she's that good remains to be seen, but [4.7] looks a fair price. Laura and Diana are both kooky and match a reported ambition of the show to produce a more contemporary winner. Kooky is currently contemporary. At [9.4], Diana is worth a small, one-point bet in the Winner market.

Simon has a similarly strong hand and at [3.7] is worth a small, one-point bet in the Winning Manager market. I don't think much of ex-Bluecoat and Gordon The Gopher lookalike Scott, but Austin seems incredibly talented - if a little lacking looks-wise - and Eoghan is just such a cutie-pie. At [14.5], Eoghan's worth a one-point bet in the Winner market.

Dannii and Louis look to have no chance of winning this series. As judges, they won't be popular. Next to Sharon, Dannii was quite alluring last year. This time round, next to Cheryl, she looks like a wax mannequin about to melt under the studio lights.

Neighbouring Sharon to neighbouring Cheryl is like having to change your wingman from Stephen Hawking to Brad Pitt. To make matters worse for Dannii; outside of Shakira wannabee, Ruth, her contestants look weak. Daniel seems a nice bloke - and his dead-wife sob-story will probably buy him a few weeks - but his singing is feeble. And although I've said it's unwise to make pronouncements about what viewers like, my guess is they won't go for an unsightly jailbird loudmouth like Rachel.

Louis is annoying and does little to help his acts. And help is what they need. Bad Lashes and Girlband sounded technically deficient in their auditions and, as Hope demonstrated last year, unless all members of a group are competent singers, they quickly fail. JLS are definitely talented, but it's hard to see who will vote for them. They're about as contemporary as Boyz II Men and, although one of them is a bit of a fitster, that's unlikely to be enough to see them progress too far.

If pushed, I'd be selecting Girlband and Rachel as most likely to be eliminated tonight, but at this early stage, the percentage call is to watch and learn.

Recommendations:

1pt win on Diana at [9.4] in Winner market
1pt win on Eoghan at [14.5] in Winner market
1pt win on Simon at [3.7] in Winning Manager market

A quick recap elsewhere as Austin Healy maintained his firm grip on the winner's market [3.15] with an excellent 34 points for his jive. Judge Bruno was quite taken aback with the display - as were many of the ladies with those impressive
guns of his.

Moving on to week four, and Tess Daly promised on the official site that there will be some 'girl on girl action on the dancefloor which should produce some hot stuff'. And for some reason, that caught my attention.

So it's the turn of the ladies, and thank god, as I really do not want to see Andrew Castle head-butting anymore. But give him credit, his dancing is much better than his tennis already.

The fourth elimination market is up on Betfair and it seems to revolve around little and large, or large and large if you like - Jodie Kidd and Jessie Wallace. Trading at [2.44] and [2.76] respectively to get the chop, this is going to be a hard one to call.

Jessie and partner Darren have had a few ups and downs already, and although the former Eastender has been working hard on her Quickstep, I think she has the look of a doomed woman, an orange doomed woman.

Darren was paired with another great actress last season in the shape of Letitia Dean. Although they made the quarter-finals, she had a touch of sympathy from the public, for some reason I don't think Wallace is as likeable.

For the Quickstep you need to be brisk, light on your feet, dynamic and energetic. Elegance plays a part too, Wallace has none of that so she'll struggle.

She would be a certainty to go this Saturday if it wasn't for Kidd - who faces a real challenge with the sexy Rumba.

Although the former model is gaining in confidence with partner Ian, they are a million miles away from challenging Lisa Snowdon and Brendan as the sexiest couple on the show.

This week the dance needs to be sensual and technical. Jodie however is lanky, gangly and awkward. Try as she might, she just cannot do sexy and is struggling to get away from her tomboy image.

There will be no shocks, and both will be in the dance-off on Sunday night. I will take a chance on Jessie surviving this week, and will lay her in the elimination market at [2.44]. If you are backer, than back Jodie to go at the slightly bigger price. The girl just cannot dance.

Elsewhere, Rachel Stevens has been laughing all week with fiery partner Vincent. It's funny that, because I have been laughing all week too after someone told me that S Club 7 had 11 Top 40 hits.

She's already a better dancer than a singer and is favourite in the 'Week 4 highest score market'. Trading currently at [2.40], I think she is worth taking on in that and having a look elsewhere.

My personal favourite is Christine Bleakley, who is fast becoming the dark horse of the competition. And no Christine, I would never ever call you a horse.

She represents a decent trade in the outright winner market at [8.60], as I think she'll get better and better. Looking radiant in her bright canary yellow dress last week, I thought she was brilliant in the group swing.

The brunnette is stunning, likeable and has tons of personality. She is getting on well with partner Matthew (who was with winner Alesha last year), and some of the favourites will be getting mighty worried.

Christine has the Quickstep to deal with this Saturday, and I am convinced she is going to nail it. Back her at the current price of [4.44] to land the 'week 4 highest score'.

Lisa Snowdon, the famous royal photographer, should also do well this week. She'll be Rhumba'ring with Brendan, and the fact it is a very intense dance should suit Mr Cole down to the ground.

From now on we can bet sensibly, bet with real money on real talent, and along the way make a bob or two out of the no-hopers. The live X-Factor shows are here, so let the betting (and battle) commence.

As expected all the big names have reached the final, including favourite to win Alexandra Burke ([4.8]), the strongest male contestant Austin Drage ([5.3]), top tottie Laura White ([6.4]), talented teenager Diana Vickers ([9.6]), bad girl turned good Rachel Hylton ([10.5]) and easily the best of the groups JLS ([12.5]).

One of the above is very likely to win, but the one that I like at a price in the Winner market is Spanish singer Ruth Lorenzo, who can be backed at [25.0]. She was rarely shown during the audition stages and only came to prominence during the latter stages of the competition. She got some very favourable comments at Bootcamp when she performed by singing her lyrics in Spanish before singing the chorus in English. She did the same at Dannii Minougue's house and showed that she is extremely passionate and emotional. She has the potential to be really good and I think at some stage in the competition she will definitely trade at single figure prices.

A line of form that we mustn't ignore is the youtube form. Prior to the Britain's Got Talent final, the three acts who had been viewed significantly more than any other act were Signature, Andrew Johnston and George Sampson - George won, Signature came second and Andrew finished third. Youtube is now the biggest public and freely available site in the world for sharing and viewing video clips, and as it's the general public who vote for the winner of The X Factor, it's important that we keep a check on who is being viewed the most.

Right now it's Rachel Hylton who has been viewed far more than any other finalist, and at [10.5] to win she is my second selection. She was outstanding in her first audition but faltered slightly at Bootcamp and the judge's house. She will appeal incredibly to the public because of the way she has turned her life around and her arrogant and cocky attitude is likeable rather than irritating. As the show goes on she will gain more confidence and she will trade at much less than [10.5] in the coming weeks.

The other Betfair markets are intriguing and offer some real opportunities to cash in on this year's X Factor.

The most outstanding bet is JLS in the Groups market. Though not much of a price at [1.6] it's a simple case of placing your bet and waiting for the other groups to be eliminated. JLS are a fine group of soul singers who possess an abundance of talent. They are Louis Walsh's only chance of success this year so he will play it safe with them, give them songs that will suit them and songs that are impossible to mess up. The girls will like them, families will like them, and they will get a lot of votes to ensure their stay in the competition is prolonged.

The two other groups are Bad Lashes and Girlband, [3.75] and [6.2] respectively behind JLS to win the Groups category. They have the potential to be car-crash television and I don't see them being in the competition for long. In fact, you will do worse than splitting your stakes on them in the 1st Elimination market - Girlband are [3.05], Bad Lashes are [7.8].

In the Boys category, Austin Drage ([1.57]) looks the standout bet to outlast Eoghan Quigg ([3.55]) and Scott Bruton ([5.9]), while in the Girls category it looks a straight fight between Alexandra Burke ([2.28]) and Laura White ([2.38]).

Having backed Rachel and Ruth to win the show outright I don't really want to get involved in choosing between them in the 25 and Overs market, though I'd have no hesitation in laying Daniel Evans at [6.0]. Danny is no better than a club singer and it can be argued that he is only in the final because of his own personal and very emotional story that he brought to the show. For the record, Rachel is [1.83] to win this category, Ruth is [3.25] and Danny is [5.1].

Best Bets

Back Ruth Lorenzo @ [25.0] to win
Back Rachel Hylton @ [10.5] to win
Back JLS @ [1.6] in Groups market

Cheryl, who has the under-25 girls to look after, might think she's big and clever when she's standing up to Simon Cowell, but we all remember what happened to the last lady judge who tried that - Sharon Osborne never won the show and was bundled out of the back door in a humiliating rage. Here are some more reasons why it's already curtains for Cole:

ITV voters prefer men

The final show always features three acts. In four years of finals, there has been one group (G4), two duos (Journey South and Same Difference) and nine solo artistes, making a total of seventeen individuals. Of those seventeen, fifteen have been male, (the only girls were Leona, series three and Sarah Smith of Same Difference, series four). That record leaves Cheryl with just an 11.7 per cent chance of even making the top three.

She has the least successful group of finalists

With the exception of Leona Lewis, female singers under 25 have enjoyed the least success of any of the four categories of performer (girls under 25, boys under 25, groups and over 25s). A group has made it to the final three times (G4, runners up, series one; Journey South, third, series two; Same Difference, third, series four), at least one under-25 male has been to the final in every series (Tabby, third, series one; Shayne, winner, series two; Ray, runner up, series three; Leon, winner, series four; Rhydian, runner up, series four), and an over-25 has been singing in three of four (Steve, winner, series one; Andy, runner up, series two; Ben, third, series three). Without Leona's thrilling series three victory, not one singing girl has made it past week five.

Simon is the headline act

The show revolves around Simon saying the unsayable, which makes him the most popular judge with the voters. Last year, his final act, Same Difference, was appalling, and yet he took them to the live final. He took the crown in series one, then again in series three. On the two occasions that he didn't come away victorious, he was handling the groups. This year, he's back to the solo artists, and he's insanely competitive.

Three judges, one spot

In the last two series, Simon has been up against just one other judge and their act/acts in the live final (Sharon with Ben, series three; Dannii with Leon and Rhydian, series four). So, assuming Simon makes it to the final again, that means three judges could well be scrambling for one spot. That gives Cheryl just a 33.3 per cent chance of making it to the final.

The winner probably hasn't been seen yet

Don't expect to have seen too much of the winner yet. In shows gone by, footage of the eventual victor has tended to be minimal until the live shows. Leona Lewis certainly appeared to come from nowhere, having enjoyed little airtime - the producers obviously like keeping the strongest singers a secret. Hence, Cheryl could easily come unstuck, with a strong line up of young female singers chomping their way through the highlights shows. We can assume, then, that the former crack addict, the Amy Winehouse impersonator from Bolton, and the one who once made it all the way to Louis' house all won't win. Too familiar.

Over 150 acts turned up at London's O2 Arena, all eager to impress the judges and keep their dream of stardom alive. But by the end of the second day, amongst the mass of disappointed faces, there were 24 delirious and amazed acts remaining, all still in with a chance of winning that £1m recording contract.

Last weekend was also a decisive one for the 'Winning Manager' market as each judge was given a category to mentor for the rest of the show. Cheryl Cole ([2.52]) was delighted to get the Girls, Simon Cowell ([3.85]) not overly impressed at being given the Boys, Dannii Minogue ([4.5]) got the Over 25s, whilst Louis Walsh ([7.4]) was pleased enough with the Groups.

The Girls category has unquestionably the most strength in depth with each of the six remaining singers capable of going a long way in the competition. Unfortunately for three of them their dream will end this weekend when Cheryl has to decide which three she wants to take through to the live TV stages.

One girl almost certain to make it through (and be amongst the favourites to win the show when the Outright Winner market materialises) is Laura White. She was given a round of applause from the judges during Saturday's show and told by Louis that she is one of the best singers they've had. However, Sunday brought a different day and a completely different performance. She tried to impersonate too much rather than just be herself and it was difficult to understand what she was singing. It's easy to forgive one bad performance as she is the type of girl to revel in front of a live audience.

Alexandra Burke is another girl I've tipped to reach the TV stages. She is a very humble young woman who appreciates how good the other singers are. Her auditions at the weekend were faultless with Simon commenting that she is incredibly mature and very exciting.

Amy Connolly and Hannah Bradbeer have both had favourable mentions on these pages, and along with Annastacia Baker and Diana Vickers are the other girls vying for a TV slot.

From the Boys category Austin Drage looks to be the leading contender to win the show for Simon. His audition at the weekend had everything. He got the crowd going, he owned the stage, he looked like a pop star, and he even had Simon telling him it was magical. He is very passionate and determined, almost bordering on desperate as one judge said, but he can certainly sing and I would expect him to not only reach the TV stages, but to be amongst the leading three or four contenders to win.

Liam Payne is the luckiest person still in the competition. He was originally told he hadn't made it through only for Simon Cowell to change his mind and call him back. He will do well to go any further as he is now in direct competition with Austin, the improving Alan Turner, young Eoghan Quinn, Scott Bruton and the exciting Mali-Michael McCalla for one of the three final places.

The Over 25s has one outstanding singer in Rachel Hylton, an emotional journey in Daniel Evans, and a potential dark-horse in Ruth Lorenzo. Rachel was told by Simon that she is one of the best singers in this country he has heard for ten years, but she nearly ruined it all when she talked back to Cowell as he offered some advice. She is stubborn, a fighter, and an incredible talent.

Suzie Furlonger, Louise Heatly and James Williams complete the group of Over 25s still in the competition.

JLS are undoubtedly the stand-out act amongst the Groups. If you close your eyes while listening to them you'd be forgiven for thinking you were back in the 60s listening to Motown. Britain has been crying out for a group like this, and whether they win or not, the chance to showcase their talent live on TV will hopefully seal them a record deal.

Other than JLS, the Groups don't look that strong, but for the sake of giving every remaining act a name check they are Bad Lashes, Desire, Girlband, Priority and 4-Instinct.

Will it be Simon Cowell ([3.35]), Cheryl Cole ([3.25]), Dannii Minogue ([4.3]) or Louis Walsh ([4.9]) who becomes the Winning Manager? Will it be the girls, the boys, the groups or the 25-and-overs that become the Winning Category? And just whose album will Knock-off Nigel be pirating in its thousands to get some extra Christmas drinking money?

I've already highlighted how strong the 'girls' category is looking, and last Saturday's final audition show included another singer from this category who has the potential to go a long way in the show. Amy Connolly is just 18-years-old and had one of those magical X Factor moments - an emotional story, a brilliant performance and a tearful ending.

Amy's mother died when she was just seven and she has since been brought up by her father, who himself loves music and was once in a band. That special bond between father and daughter was there for all to see, while the memory of her mother was expressed so beautifully when Amy sang the Faith Hill song There You'll Be. The result was a tearful Cheryl embracing an emotional Amy as she told her, "I loved it" (referring to the song). The rest of the judges agreed and put the innocent teenager through to the next stage of the competition.

You have to fear for Amy because of her vulnerability. She has obviously gone through a lot in her life and whether she can handle the intensity of the live shows (if she gets there) remains to be seen. I have a feeling that this year's X Factor has come just a few years too soon for Amy.

Fighting back in the 'boys' category last week were solo singers Duane Lamonte, Jay Worley, and to a much lesser extent, 17-year-old Glenn from Newcastle.

Poor Glenn is one of those chaps that you can file under the word 'deluded'. He thinks he sounds like Robbie Williams, can be as big as Elvis, and therefore sacrificed his summer holiday money to pay for the petrol to get to the audition. Considering Newcastle to Birmingham must cost only about £20, I'm guessing that the holiday Glenn sacrificed was a two-hour stay in a South Shields beach hut. He proceeded to mess up his audition completely, first by sounding so mundane and boring that the judges sent him away to pick another song, then by forgetting the words to the second song he had chosen. Oh dear Glenn, you should have just gone on your hols..... for a few hours!

You can see Glenn's hilarious audition here.

Knowing someone in the music industry can be a big help when you're going for your first audition, so there was absolutely no excuse for Duane to mess up considering he and his family were close to Leona Lewis and her family. He didn't mess up, in fact he was likened to Stevie Wonder and Marvin Gaye by Simon - high praise indeed. He could be a dark horse.

Young Jay had an abundance of confidence for a 15-year-old. He hails from the Welsh town of Pontypridd (that of Tom Jones fame) and sang Valerie - a song by the Zutons and covered by Mark Ronson. Unfortunately for Jay he wasn't the greatest singer in the world and was largely put through because of the cute, adorable and likeable aspect of his performance.

So that's it for the auditions, signalling the end of the fun side of The X Factor and the start of the serious side. Bootcamp is next, followed by the final elimination process at the judges' houses before the live TV shows begin. One thing is for certain, we've seen the winner of this year's show already, and although there is no 'Outright Winner' market yet, I'm keeping these four (one from each category) firmly on my side; JLS (groups), Rachel Hylton (25-and-overs), Alexandra Burke (girls) and Austin Drage (boys).

It's hard to see why people still care about the Booker Prize, especially hard to see why writers still care about the Booker Prize. The number of great, era-defining fictions to have missed out is surely testament to the irrelevance of the prize. And who cares what Michael Portillo thinks of a book?

Well, evidently, people do. Readers certainly do. And not without reason because the list of winners is almost as impressive as the list of books which should have won. This is a prize which has, in its 40 year history, been won by novelists such as VS Naipaul, Iris Murdoch, J.M Coetzee, Ian McEwan, Kazuou Ishiguro and William Golding. So the Booker has maintained its lit cred while expanding commerically. Nowadays, prizes determine what we read almost as much as critics do.

The democratisation of the Booker is generally considered to have begun with the 2002 triumph of Yan Martel's The Life of Pi, followed a year later by DBC Pierre's Vernon God Little. Since then, judges have talked about giving the prize to books which can be enjoyed by "the man in the street" and this year a thriller even made it onto the longlist.

So it was in a tone of predictable tokenism, abuzz with phrases such as "readability" and "page-turning," that Chairman of the Judges Portillo announced this year's shortlist last week.

Equally predictably, much was said about the books which failed to make the list. Professor John Sutherland had vowed to eat a copy of The Enchantress of Florence if it did not win but Salman Rushdie's tenth novel failed to reach the last six. Joseph O'Neill's Netherland - a tale of post-colonial displacement which throws Gunn and Moore cricket bats into the New York melting pot - was the favourite to win and its absence, as well as that of Rushdie and former winner John Berger, makes for an open field.

Betting on the Booker is a perilous exercise but as Mr Portillo said in his previous life: "He who dares..."

The current market leader is Amitav Ghosh's Sea of Poppies, an historical adventure set in the build-up to the opium wars which spans the poppy fields of the Ganges, the high seas and the backstreets of China. It has won Ghosh comparisons to Conrad and Melville and can be backed at [1.66].

Sebastian Barry is the only writer to have been previoulsy shortlisted and The Secret Scripture, his alternative history of Ireland told through the diaries of a woman and her psychiatrist, is available to back at [2.42].

Like Barry's entry, Steve Toltz's Fraction of the Whole recollects things past to make a series of shocking discoveries and, like Sea of Poppies, is global in its hemisphere spanning scope. It is also an assured debut, amusing elegy to the agony of father/son relationships, physical comedy and epic yawp which could be this year's Vernon God Little, providing value at [4.2].

Aravind Adiga's The White Tiger, which charts its protagonist's journey from rural Indian life to the fast changing world of urban entrepreneurialism, can be backed at [4.8].

At [5.2] Linda Grant's The Clothes On Their Backs, a London set story about concealed pasts, dark subjects, stark choices and how the clothes we wear define us all is well worth a look but my own tip is Phillip Hensher's The Northern Clemency.

Hensher was longlisted in 2002 for the Mulberry Empire and has gone one better with this long novel set in Sheffield which chronicles Britain during the turbulence of the Thatcher years through the fortunes of two families. Hensher is a distinguished writer of genuine Booker pedigree and where his prose was previously cool and refined, here his style is warm, unafraid to get about the entanglements of daily life. His paens to Sheffield are moving without descending into sentimentality and though this nomination might have come earlier than expected, this impressive novel is my tip at [2.28].

After tipping Elbow for the Mercury Music Prize a couple of months back, I am now more certain than ever that in books as in music, this is the year of the slightly rotund, bearded Northerner. As every year should be.

I've previously spoken about Rachel Hylton ([25.0] and overs) and Laura White (girls), two outstanding solo singers from completely different backgrounds, while Francine and Nicola (groups) have the potential to be this year's Same Difference - cheesy but likeable. But in recent weeks the bar has been raised by Hannah Bradbeer (girls) and Alexandra Burke (girls), both of whom auditioned brilliantly and got some fantastic comments from the Cowell and Co Judging Panel.

Hannah is intriguing. Looking like she'd just had her head flushed down the toilet she walked into the room donning a lovely girly dress.... and a leather jacket. She admitted to absolutely hating her office job (make that ex-office job) and that this competition could help her move on. She then sang the Duffy hit "Mercy" which left the judges gawping in amazement. Simon's immediate comment of "Love this girl" is one that we are becoming accustomed to now, but his later revelation that Hannah is "Incredible, one to watch, trust me" added more weight to the belief that this outspoken wild child can go a long way this year.

Another singer who will definitely go a long way is Alexandra, just like she did in 2005. Back then, as a raw 16-year-old, she made it to the final seven in her category but just missed out on making it to the live TV stages. Three years later she looks a polished performer, almost the finished article in fact. After singing the Whitney Houston hit "Saving All My Love For You", Louis commented that she was "Amazing, absolutely amazing" before saying, "In every sense I think you're world class".

Alexandra reminds me a lot of Leona Lewis. Her looks and voice are very similar, while her shyness and not realising just how good she is were traits that Leona also had. Cheryl commented that she was born to sing and I agree. When (not if) Alexandra reaches the TV stages she will be amongst the front-runners in the 'Outright Winner' market, so if you can get matched in excess of [6.0] you will be doing well.

So to the males, and the question of whether they have enough ammunition to win this year. Judging by Ashiq Paca's audition the answer is a resounding no. Ashiq claimed that his music would change the world, that he had the power and passion to heal people and that his music would make the world a better place. Michael Jackson he wasn't but Ashiq had a style of his own - a style that caught the judges' attention. You can watch his audition here, but don't expect many things in your life to change instantly.

One man who certainly had passion was 38-year-old Danny Evans ([25.0] and overs), who tragically lost his wife shortly after she gave birth to their 11-month-old daughter. Normally his choice of song and appearance would have been filed under the category of 'corny', but there was something very special about Danny's performance. Give me a story about a child losing her mother and a man singing from his heart to his late wife and I get flooded with tears. He doesn't have the class to win, but his heartbreaking story shows The X Factor in a brilliant light and Danny's immense appeal will take him on a long emotional journey.

Other auditions to catch the eye were Joelle Moses (girls) and Austin Drage (boys). Joelle is a 17-year-old who has never had any vocal training other than to listen to a CD bought from town. The experience will be great for her, but you get the feeling that if she did reach the TV stages she would be one of the first to go.

Austin is one of the strongest male singers we've seen so far. He was the subject of 'Fix Factor' last week because of his apparent friendship with Cheryl Cole, which has since been strenuously denied. If he can get the monkey of being friends with Cheryl off his back, then he may well go far.

Cheryl Cole - [3.4]

The Girls Aloud singer is making her first appearance on The X Factor and has immediately been installed as the favourite to win. She is one of those people that you either hate or detest and her lofty position in the market can only be put down to people thinking she is going to hit it off with one of the contestants - and judging by the audition shows to date, that's not as daft as it first seems.

Her fake flirting is ridiculous however. It's like she is trying to get back at husband Ashley through the television - though what she fails to realise is that her hubby has far more exciting things to do on a Saturday evening than watch The X Factor. And I'm not just talking about scoring on a football pitch!

She obviously has a chance of becoming the winning manager but much depends on which category she gets given. If she gets the 'boys' (which is very likely considering it will be a ratings winner) then her chance improves considerably - any other category will harm her chances.

Simon Cowell - [3.5]

Series 1: 1st (Steve Brookstein), Series 2: 3rd (Journey South), Series 3: 1st (Leona Lewis) & 2nd (Ray Quinn), Series 4: 3rd (Same Difference)

He has been called rude, arrogant, smug, vain and mean - and that's from the people that like him! But Simon Cowell cares little for what people think, insisting that telling the truth (however blunt it may be) is the only way he can work. He maintains that when he tells someone that they have the worst voice in the world, what he is really saying is that they will never make it as a singer - which is a bit like telling your fit girlfriend that she is crap in bed just because you don't want her to become a porn star.

Cowell is the Sir Alex Ferguson of the pop world - right at the top of his game and brilliant at mind games. You can rest assured that whichever category Simon gets, the three acts that make it to the live TV stages will be in with a great chance of winning The X Factor. He is likely to miss out on getting the 'girls' however, which makes for gripping television as he demonstrates his high testosterone levels on newcomer Cheryl (much to the disappointment of Dannii, may I add).

Dannii Minogue - [3.95]

Series 4: 1st (Leon Jackson) & 2nd (Rhydian Roberts)

Dannii is the defending champion and deserves enormous credit for getting someone that wouldn't even place in my local pub's karaoke final to win Britain's biggest singing competition.

She looked a bit overawed at times last year, especially in the presence of the empowering Sharon Osbourne, but will be brimming with confidence this year now that she is the senior member of the female judges. Her downfall, though, will be that she probably won't get the 'boys' category to manage this series, and with her having no experience of 'groups' (singing groups that is) and unlikely to bond with the 'girls' (it's a woman thing), then her chances of success look slim this time around - especially if she gets assigned the 25-and-overs category, which doesn't look strong at this stage.

Louis Walsh - [5.2]

Series 1: 2nd (G4), Series 2: 1st (Shayne Ward), Series 3: 4th (The Macdonald Brothers), Series 4: 4th (Niki Evans)

Louis is brilliant in his role as the judge that cops a lot of abuse from Simon but replies only with half-hearted insults. You get the feeling that he doesn't want to upset anyone but instead just wants to cuddle people, especially the males (because of his success with them, of course).

Having created such groups as Westlife and Boyzone, and managed Ronan Keating through his solo career, you have to say that Louis is well up to winning this year's series if he gets the category of 'boys' or 'groups' to manage. He has had the groups twice before, however, so probably won't get them; and I'm confident Cheryl will get the boys. As Louis got the 25-and-overs last year he probably won't get them either, which just leaves the 'girls' - and though his success with the girls is hardly a well documented part of his life, that category is looking quite strong right now.

Prediction

Whether the producers think putting Cheryl with the 'boys' will be a ratings winner or not, all the permutations point to Louis getting the nod to manage the 'girls' just ahead of Simon. Therefore backing Louis now at [5.2] is an excellent back-to-lay opportunity.

Former Rising Damp star Don Warrington [[80.0] to win on Betfair] and political correspondent John Sergeant [90.0] can both be discounted immediately on age grounds. The BBC audience can be pretty ruthless, and so far the most successful gents over 50 have been Jimmy Tarbuck (series four) and Willie Thorne (series five), and they only lasted three shows.

The Sportsmen

With the exception of last year, when bumbling Kenny Logan and John Barnes gave dancing sportsmen a bad name, athletes, with their confidence, stamina and agility, tend to fare well. Austin Healey [9.4] appears to have the right blend of ego and burliness to emulate his old rugby cohort Matt Dawson (runner up, series two), while Mark Foster [10.5] is exactly the kind of hulking muscle man that gets BBC housewives reaching for their voting phones. Both are worth keeping an enormous eye on.

The Soap Stars

Both Strictly Come Dancing and Eastenders are massive audience magnets for the Beeb, so the dance floor is never without a familiar face from Albert Square, and this year there are three of them - Jessie Wallace [15.5], Gillian Taylforth [48.0] and Phil Daniels [26.0]. Daniels is probably a little bit too old and urchin-faced to win the show - this audience generally demands a little more sex appeal. The same goes for Taylforth, who has been teamed up with class joker Anton de Beke, presumably to become the show's all-important comedy couple who will fare well, but be cut as soon as the competition turns serious. The third, Jessie Wallace, probably has the best chance. Since her stint on Eastenders, she has starred in Rent in the West End, so presumably knows how to perform for a live audience, even if it is with a fixed maniac grin and irritating jazz hands.

The hot girls

Last year, the show featured three hot girls - winner Alesha Dixon, Kelly Brook and (for the older gent) Penny Lancaster. This year, they've upped the stakes and incorporated four - Lisa Snowdon [10.5], Rachel Stevens [6.6], Jodie Kidd [13.5] and Christine Bleakley [11.0]. All have the potential to do well. Snowdon attended Italia Conti stage school, so presumably already knows a thing or two about lolloping around on a dance floor, but at 36, she might be a little too old. Jodie Kidd is tall and leggy, so will be hoping to match Zoe Ball (third, series three) rather than Penny Lancaster (ninth, last year). Rachel Stevens is fantastically telegenic and already has a big profile having graduated from chart fodder S Club 7. And Bleakley has the same medium-sized television profile that served Jill Halfpenny (winner, series two) and Alesha Dixon (winner, last year) so well.

The generally disadvantaged

Anyone who saw Gary Rhodes [30.0] on Hell's Kitchen already knows that he has an irksome competitive streak, which should see him nail an intense American Smooth while simultaneously alienating an entire viewership - this audience tires of try-hards (Gabby Logan, eleventh, last year). Cherie Lunghi [44.0] - for those unfamiliar with Kenco coffee adverts and the 1980s Arthurian romp Excalibur - is a jobbing actress whose profile is far too miniscule for her to survive more than a couple of shows. And Heather Small [16.5] was, of course, the unlistenable foghorn voice behind such great M People hits as Moving On Up, and could be this year's Mica Paris, who trundled in second last in series four.

The ones to watch

Andrew Castle's [16.0] GMTV colleagues Kate Garraway (eighth, last year) and Fiona Phillips (ninth, series three) were both horrible ballroom dancers, and yet the legions of GMTV voters proved impossible to disappoint - he's like family to them. While Tom Chambers [5.1] is the early leader, thanks to his dramatic turn as a handsome medic in Holby City - a popular show with loyal BBC viewers. He has something of the Gethin Jones (third, last year) clean cut wholesomeness about him.

Kathreya was supposed to win, before her persistent oscillation between singing and weeping became too much to bear. Darnell had it in the bag until his paranoid mumblings saw him spin into meltdown, and even Rex looked a likely winner until his girlfriend turned up and unmasked him as the most controlling boyfriend in the world.

So assuming Rex [11.0] and Darnell [36.0] simply can't win at this stage, it's left as a three horse race between Sara, Rachel and Mikey. Sara [6.4] can thank a massive wave of sympathy for her place in the final. Until about a week ago she seemed like a kindly Australian woman with an unbearable voice like a malfunctioning synthesizer, but after a few tough days facing jibes from Rex and Darnell, followed by revelations that her family has disowned her, she suddenly has a thrilling back story and an in-house journey. She has faced adversity, and is now the dark horse.

Rachel would prove to be a horribly dull winner, but should the votes be dictated by which housemates have done the least to upset the outside world, it's hers to lose. Of previous winners, only Cameron (series four) can match her anodyne kindliness - a bigger character must surely win it. It is really difficult for people to find the energy to vote for a personality void.

Which leaves Mikey [1.98]. On the plus side for the blind gentleman, he has the affliction (Pete, series seven), the Scottishness (Cameron, series four) and only once has a pedigree female won (Kate Lawler, series three) - Nadia was a gentleman at the time of winning series five. On the downside for the Scot is that he's an unbearable whiner, and he has the look of a man who smells, but the affliction vote could carry him all the way.

However, should the final three be Mikey, Rachel and Sara - as the odds would have it - then history dictates that a girl should walk away with the crown. Only once in the history of the show has the majority gender in the final three not won - when Lawler beat off the challenges of two boys (Jonny and Alex) in Big Brother 3.

Although the live finals (and therefore the Betfair markets) don't start for a month or so yet, it's still worth watching the audition shows with a view to spotting some potential winners... and if that fails, at least cringe at Simon Cowell's attempts to do to fellow judge Cheryl Cole what her husband Ashley has failed to do for months now - get into the box and score.

A group has never won the X Factor, but on the evidence of the first few weeks of auditions that could change this year, especially in the shape of boy band JLS. A quartet of twenty-somethngs, the boys were praised for their individual singing ability as much as they were for their group performance. Very much in the style of top American band Boyz ll Men, they have the ability and potential to go a long way, and then their likeability factor will have a huge impact once the live shows are upon us. As soon as the market for 'Top Group' appears, check them out.

Another group to impress was 'Francine and Nicola', a name that befits their dumb blonde perception as they are twin sisters, one named Francine and the other called Nicola. They don't have the best vocals you will ever hear, but they are instantly likeable, seem very fun, and they will appeal to the younger generation if they reach the TV stages of the competition.

Though the X Factor is a show that has produced some fabulous artists down the years, it is arguably more famed for highlighting some of the most disillusioned people currently living in Britain. Already the current series has thrown up a few gems, most notably Ant and Seb, the Welsh duo who likened their style to a cross between P. Diddy, Usher and Rick Astley. Their rendition of Peter Andre's Mysterious Girl had the panel of judges in stitches and Simon renaming the duo as 'Ant and Deaf'. You can watch their performance here, but try not to laugh too much.

Equally disillusioned, and even more disturbed, was 26-year-old holistic vocal coach Ariel. Quite frankly, you'd rather spend a week with a starving Hannibal Lecter than a few minutes with the terrifying wannabe singer. She claimed her audition was an academic construction, and something not to be liked, but to be understood. When the judges told her they neither liked nor understood it she looked appalled, before giving them a stare that would make you look over your shoulder for the rest of your life.

The X Factor appeals to all types of viewers, especially Northern softies like me, and I couldn't help but be moved and impressed by the audition of Rachel. Rachel hasn't had an easy life, getting mixed up with drugs and spending time in prison as a youngster. She is a single mother of five and is desperate for a break in life - she got one the moment she started singing.

Rachel sang a version of the Amy Winehouse hit 'You Know I'm No Good' and left the judges gobsmacked - in fact this girl could never be described as no good on this performance. Everything about her was special - her story, her attitude, her vocals, and it wasn't just me that she left a lasting impression on.

Other names to look keep on your side from the auditions so far are Eoghan Quigg, a 15-year-old schoolboy from Northern Ireland, and Laura White from Bolton who sang beautifully despite suffering from an extremely sore throat.

Of those with a dark cloud looming above, Sara [1.85 to go on Betfair] is probably in the gravest danger. As a new arrival and an Australian she was never going to win the thing, and her inability to snaffle the crown should make her a popular eviction choice. If only Darnell hadn't gone into a total meltdown, that is. As the albino singer began laying into her for no apparent reason, she was busily hoovering up all-important sympathy points, and he may have inadvertently handed her a life raft. Before she became the victim of in-house bullying, Shilpa Shetty didn't look like a Celebrity Big Brother winner, so Sara could yet make the final. She won't win, however, her voice is way too appalling - like a Moog gone wild.

As for Lisa [2.04] to go, she is still the dark horse to win the show should she make it past Friday. Since Mario oozed from the house she has morphed into one of the finest contestants ever. Clearly bananas, she has grown more important to the house as a mother hen, and by agreeing to marry Mario on telly, she will have won over the voters looking for a romantic journey to coo over. It's going to be a tight one though, and much depends on how far Sara's sympathy vote can carry her. A hunch suggests that Lisa should be safe.

Both Darnell and Rex have unraveled somewhat in the closing weeks of the programme. Rex's long slurring poshness was considered Bond-like and sophisticated by swathes of early voters, until his oik of a girlfriend turned up forming the most hideous couple seen on television since Jade took her thick boyfriend onto Celebrity Big Brother. Plus the bullying debacle hasn't helped either. And Darnell, who by all accounts should be preparing his winning speech, but keeps butchering himself in the foot, has thrown it all away. Picking on Kat and Sara in the same week has proven fatal, and now he won't win it.
What an idiot.

With absolutely no chance of winning are Mohamed [70.0] and Sara [40.0]. Mo must get special praise for being one of the most impressive survivors in Big Brother history. Earmarked for an early exit, he has somehow lurched all the way to the final (as Head of House he can't get evicted this week), despite having no social skills whatsoever. Sara, meanwhile, is too female, too much of a late arrival, and too Australian. For a new arrival she has fared well, but if faced with a midweek eviction she could easily be the one to go.

Also out of the running is Rex [15.5]. It's too late in the day for him to recover from his girlfriend's god awful visit to the house. He still seems popular with his fellow inmates, but voters will find him far too posh, wealthy, and arrogant to make him the winner. His bubble was burst the minute Nicole came in and he demanded that she share her every thought with him.

Rachel [4.0] is too dull. The winner at least needs some "best bits" and she has none worth airing. That said, she has played a canny game by attaching herself to Kat, who is far more likeable, but the Welsh vote won't be strong enough to see her steal the crown.
Fellow Welshies Helen (runner up, series two) and Glynn (runner up, series seven) were both more popular but didn't romp home. Her best bet would be as top female - but that's unlikely too.

On the up and up, and worth keeping an enormous eye on is Lisa [8.0]. She has steadily grown in stature as the series has gone on, and now that Mario has demanded that she marry him, she has crafted a fantastic in-house journey. For the first few weeks she was very much in the idiotic muscleman's shadow, but as a housemate on her own she has become an important member of the inner congregation. She is the mother hen, and totally bananas. Should there be a surprise winner, she'll be it.

As for the other three - Darnell [12.5], Kat [14], Mikey [2.78] - all have a chance of winning, and all could potentially throw it away. Mikey has thrived without the likes of Mario and Luke barking over him, but his persistent moaning is still difficult to listen to. The favourite, he has yet to face eviction, so is hard to judge, but he is surely too grumpy and Scottish to win. Only one Scot has ever won (Cameron, series four) and he was unerringly sweet natured.

Darnell keeps shooting himself in the foot with his paranoid ramblings, and being mean to Kat and Sara will not endear him to big chunks of the voters. That said, his insecurity could appeal to the more sensitive viewers, and of all the housemates his back-story/journey is the most thrilling - prison, affliction, anger problems. Should the sympathy vote spread that far, he might come away with the crown.

And so to Kat - the favourite for so long, the novelty of her bouncing around cooing about biscuits finally wore off after about seven weeks, and she has been sent tumbling down the ladder. She has since been mostly weeping to people about the importance of friendship - nothing fun about that. But should her gleeful nature return for the final week, she could snare the floating voters. A hot tip for Top Female.

This week Chickendinner predicts: Darnell to win, Kathreya to come second, Lisa to come third.