The Contrarian: Why Joe Swash won't win I'm a Celebrity

I'm a Celebrity / The Betfair Contrarian / 03 December 2008 / Leave a Comment

The Betfair Contrarian isn't taken in by all that sentimental, populist, earnest Cockney bluff. But he does like the look of the big prices availble on other jungle contestants...

After a couple of wobbly weeks on the rugby, with those underdog All Blacks coming over here and surprising everybody with their abilities, the Contrarian is back on terra firma this week with one of his favourite sports: reality television. Everybody thinks cheeky former Eastenders market trader and Rantzen-straddler Joe Swash is going to stroll his way to the King of the Jungle title - Betfair customers love him so much they've stampeded him down to [1.4] to win - but the Contrarian reckons that leaves massive value elsewhere, and young Swash will be falling back on some of his saltier East End vocabulary when he finally leaves the bush.

He's too young

I'm a Celebrity has traditionally been won by older contestants. Only once has it been won by a male in his twenties (Matt Willis, series six). In five of the previous seven series, more "mature" "celebrities" took the title (Tony Blackburn, then 59; Phil Tufnell, then 37; Joe Pasquale, then 44; Carol Thatcher, then 50; Christopher Biggins, then 57). The other winner was Kerry Katona. This pattern clearly suggests that voters tend to lean towards older contestants, particularly older men. Of the four other contestants remaining, two are in their fifties (David van Day and Martina Navratilova) and one is in his seventies (George Takei).

He's a soap star

Although plenty of soap actors have taken part, none have ever won. Daniella Westbrook, Sheree Murphy, Sid Owen, Kimberley Davies, Elaine Lordan and Dean Gaffney have all tried and failed. With one exception, Sheree Murphy in series 5, none have even finished in the top two, suggesting a significant lack of public enthusiasm for soapsters.

He's an actor

The public doesn't have much of an appetite for actors at all, it seems. Only one - pantomime specialist Christopher Biggins - has ever won, out of 15 who've tried.

He's tried too hard

Although records are a little patchy, in the four seasons of the show for which the Contrarian can find details, the person who does most bushtucker trials (and with six done already Joe can't be caught) has never won, which suggests that viewers like to see those contestants who rub them the wrong way suffer, but won't then vote for them to win.

He hasn't been on a journey

He's been a chirpy barrow boy since day one, and although he's been rocked back on his heels by being made to look foolish by David, viewers tend to warm to contestants who somehow reveal more of themselves as the show goes on. George seems to have retreated into some sort of catatonic state, sleeping 18 hours a day and only emerging to eat, yet the previously inscrutable Martina [7.4 on Betfair] has come out of her shell in a way that voters will find irresistible. This is why early favourites in reality shows rarely win - from a position of popularity, disappointment all too often ensues.

He's not David

David van Day may be the most disgusting of all creatures resident in the Australian bush - being tested in vats of stinking slime and rat-filled caverns is nothing compared to having to share a camp with the odious van Day, but the Sun reckons he's got it sewn up. "Jungle joker David van Day is on course to win I'm a Celebrity" trumpets the paper. "The Sun can reveal the former 80s singer is leading the voting "by a country mile" according to insiders."