Eurovision Song Contest / The Betfair Contrarian / 15 April 2009 / 2 Comments

The Contrarian is a huge Eurovision fan. After all, in what other competitive arena does Luxembourg get to hold its little head high? Sadly the Contrarian's crystal ball doesn't forecast glory for the microscopic principality this year, although neither does it for this year's favourites Norway, who you can currently back at [2.6] to win.

Given the Eastern Bloc's penchant to club together and hand-pick a winner among themselves, the Contrarian finds Norway's price way too short. Here are six other reasons why they won't be completing a hat-trick of Eurovision successes this year:

Solo male performers arent very popular

Norway are being represented this year by violinist Alexander Rybak after his self-composed entry Fairytale eased to victory in their Melodi Grand Prix selection process. Selecting Rybak could prove to be a decision Norway regret, as prior to last year, no solo male performer had won Eurovision since Toto Cutugno triumphed for Italy in 1990. While Dima Bilan's win for Russia may be seen as a sign that the tide is starting to turn, it should be noted that the rest of the top six were all solo women, while the second highest solo man was Israel's Boaz Mauda, who finished ninth.

It has been a decade filled with new winners

The last eight winners of the Eurovision Song Contest have all been the first act from their country to be crowned champions. As Norway have won twice previously, that would rule them out. Fourth-favourites Azerbaijan [24.0] debuted in eighth last year and have a catchy entry this year. The other countries yet to taste victory who feature prominently in the betting are Malta [28.0] and Bosnia and Herzegovina [32.0].

Singing in English hasnt helped Norway

A ruling in 1999 lifted the ban on countries singing in foreign languages, and nine of the last ten winners have sung in English. However, ditching Norwegian in all but one entry since then hasn't worked out for them. Norway finished in the top eight in five of the six years prior to the ban being lifted, but have only returned twice in nine attempts since, never higher than fourth.

Norway's winning efforts, in 1985 and 1995, together with the song that took them to second in 1996 and the one that gained third in 1966 were all sung in their native tongue. However, lessons have not been learnt and this year's entry is another English entry.

Finishing fifth last year is NOT a good omen

Anyone who regards the fact Norway came fifth last year as evidence that they are on the up should think again. In just three of the last 14 years has the winner come from the previous years top five and the fifth position has been more cursed than most. None of the last 10 acts to finish fifth (Sweden and Cyprus tied for it in 2004) have improved on their position the following year and the last five have all failed to make even the top 15 twelve months later.

Rybak may be too young

Of the last nine winners, six-and-a-half have been 25 or older (Estonia's 2001 winners were split). Even more significantly, all seven of the male solo artists that have won the Eurovision Song Contest were at least 25 at the time of their triumph. Rybak turns 23 a few days before the final but could still be a little too young to gain continent-wide approval.

Norway didn't treat its allies well last year

In 2008, the only two countries to hand full points to Norway were Finland and Sweden but they received just four and seven points respectively in return. While Norway were rather stingy towards their Scandinavian neighbours, they handed 10 points to Bosnia and Herzegovina, who offered just two in return. There is a chance that having not had their generosity rewarded last year, Finnish and Swedish voters may think twice before helping out Norway again.