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Eurovision Betting: The big night is upon us

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As far as European entertainment goes, the song contest will have to go some way to match last week's football in Moscow. Still, at least the judges won't have to put up with as many tantrums from the prima donnas taking part.

Now that the biggest European night is out of the way, on we go to the strangest. Unlike Wednesday's Champions League final, however, no British contestant will be fingering the silverware. Six of the last seven winners have come from eastern or southern Europe, which implies that those are the parts of the continent that vote most enthusiastically and that they like to keep it amongst themselves. They also take the opportunity to let us know just how much they hate us - this year's sacrificial lamb will be Andy Abraham [270.0] to win on Betfair].

The big western nations are not helped by getting a free pass to the final either. They are disadvantaged as their songs have not been heard before, and they are also made to feel somehow separate to the rest of the competition, not to mention resented. Germany [300.0] have the longest price of all the Western nations; France [70.0] have come up with a good song produced by Daft Punk, but the singer - beard, wig, shades - has not been styled to catch any spare votes going, while Spain [38.0] have the shortest price of the seeds, but won't win, given that their entry is an unfunny novelty act that appears to be mocking Eurovision. Comedy acts don't win.

Of those already showing form, Ukraine [5.2] who have shortened to comfortable second favourites from 12 on Tuesday, and Sweden [12.5] look to be peaking at the right time. Ukraine have sent over a pretty woman called Ani Lorak to sing a fabulous toe-tapper called Shady Lady - it ticks all of the boxes and is classic Eurovision. Sweden will be relying on former winner Charlotte Perrelli (won in 1999, then called Charlotte Nilsson) to bring the trophy home. A recent BBC poll suggests that the more discerning viewers are hugely attracted to her dreamy ballad, Hero.

Both are good bets. Ukraine have tumbled the Eurovision formula, winning in 2004 and coming second last year, and many recent winners have also been experienced performers. They know how to connect with a big crowd, already have a following and their professionalism shines out against the dross.

The favourite, Russia [3.85], still look interesting, but the rumour from Belgrade is that their artist, Dima Bilan is coming apart at the seams, and might yet collapse under the pressure. Hosts Serbia have drifted this week from [5.0] out to [11.0] while Armenia's semi-final performance has pushed them out to [15.5] from ]6.0].

Amongst this week's shorteners are Greece [10.0], in from [15.0] with a Britney impersonation and Finland's metal-by-numbers [20.0] in from [50.0]. Finland rocked to victory in 2006, and this is not better than that.

For the more daring gambler, Bosnia [26.0] stand out, with a performance straight from some kind of drug induced 1920s Dadaist warehouse, and Croatia [260.0] have their hopes riding on the shoulders of a geriatric rapper.

Amongst the also-rans, Turkey [44.0], Portugal [70.0] and Albania [260.0] all shot themselves in the foot by steering clear of the universal language of English and singing in their native tongue (13 of the last 16 winners have been in English). Israel [160.0], Romania [180.0], Iceland [160.0], Georgia [65.0] and Azerbaijan [80.0] haven't put the effort in and their songs are bland. Poland [230.0] are relying on the pornographic looks of their "artist", overlooking the fact that she sounds worse than Milli Vanilli. Norway [55.0] are the biggest losers in Eurovision history.

The other two are Latvia [130.0] and Denmark [70.0]. Neither will win, but Latvia's pirates are fun. Which leaves Serbia [12.0], the hosts and reigning champs. The crown has only been retained just five times in the history of Eurovision, and not once since 1994, when Ireland managed three in a row. Hence, unlikely.