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Eurovision Betting: Ireland's track record should see them through semi-final 1

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Those "betting specials" experts Chicken Dinner talk us through the first of the Eurovision semi-finals where performances include a screaming turkey puppet, a former Miss Slovenia and a cross between ballet and a live chicken courtesy of Bosnia

For this first Eurovision semi-final, nineteen countries are competing for ten spots in the final. The voting is all kept secret, so as not to influence the main competition, meaning ten names will be read out in no particular order by a very happy European woman. It's going to be great.

The big favourite for the final, Russia [1.03 to qualify on Betfair], should be a shoo-in for qualification, as should other potential winners Armenia [1.07] - singing the hugely infectious Qele Qele - and Greece [1.17], who are doing a Britney Spears impression (NB. That's early Brit, not demented, fame-damaged Brit).

Ireland [1.65] are taking a big risk by sending over a ridiculous screaming turkey puppet to wind up the more humourless and straight-faced areas of Europe (Austria?), but based on their terrific Eurovision record (three wins in a row in the 90s), the turkey should just about do it. When it comes to the big one, however they can forget it - this is a competition for human winners only.

Azerbaijan [1.6] have fashioned a seriously camp disco opera that might rock Eurovision to its very core - they are currently [100.0] to win the whole thing [1.6 to qualify]. Taking the brave decision to fly in the face of history are Montenegro [4.0], Estonia [3.3], San Marino [4.2], Belgium [3.0], Slovenia [1.96] (starring a former Miss Slovenia), Finland [2.24] (again, they've gone power rock, which won it for them in 2006) Romania [1.24] and Bosnia and Herzegovina [1.28], who have all chosen to forsake the universal language of English in favour of something closer to their native tongue.

Bad move, people, English is by far the most popular Eurovision language (21 winners and counting). Of that little group, only Bosnia, with their totally bananas performance art (exploring the interface between ballet and a live chicken) can go into the semi-final feeling breezy. It's an excellent song which will blow your mind.

Norway [1.72] are probably worth avoiding - they have finished bottom of the pile in the main competition on ten separate occasions. This year, they have taken a conservative route, by enlisting a pretty young woman to sing a mid-tempo plodder that makes Chris Rea look like Prince - at [34.0] to finish bottom, they could make for an interesting bet to be worst-in-show.

Israel [2.6] have turned to man/woman Dana International to sprinkle his/her fairy dust on their entry, which rather than turning out to be the hoped for cheerful disco anthem, is instead a dreary folk song which won't impress anyone. Poland [2.06] are relying on the pornographic looks of their singer Isis Gee, who can't sing very well. The Netherlands [3.5] have opted for a taste of the East, but with nowhere near the same panache as Armenia. Unfortunately for Moldova [2.72], it's still the mid-1960s in their country, hence, they have no chance.

The unlucky nine will be Israel, The Netherlands, Moldova, Norway, Montenegro, Estonia, San Marino, Belgium and Finland.