Eurovision Song Contest / David Wilson / 06 April 2009 / Leave a comment

"Just as I was saying how outsiders can't win the National, low and behold a 100/1 winner! Well, enough of freak results. It's back to the business of serious betting markets and the Eurovision Song Contest," writes David Wilson.

After highlighting a few likely movements in the market last week, it is time to analyse the first round of entrants taking part in the first Eurovision semi-final. Forty-two countries will line up in this year's Eurovision Song Contest, with five qualifying automatically for the final (UK, Spain, France, Germany and this year's host nation, Russia). The remaining 37 nations are split into two semis (18 in the first, 19 in the second) and there are 10 final spots up for grabs in each semi.

Televoting will decide the first nine qualifiers in each, with a back-up jury deployed to pick a further entrant in each to advance so to try and ensure fairness. In addition to the countries participating in the first semi-final, Germany, Spain and UK will vote in the first semi-final, while France and Russia vote in the second semi-final.

At this stage, although the markets for the semis are still taking shape, there does appear to be some stand-out value. At [2.95] Turkey looks a very strong bet to win the first semi. A good song, strong choreography and an attractive singer are just a few of the components this entry has to make it a good price. However, the main two reasons are that it is ideally located in Eastern Europe to pick up neighbourly votes, as well as having the aid of the Belgians, Germans and UK amongst the first round of voters (countries where there would be a large Turkish community).

The third reason that this looks like a strong bet is that when you look at the outright market, Turkey are [12.5] clear third favourites for the contest. From this semi, only Malta [26.00] Sweden [27.00] and Bosnia [36.00] are even slightly close in the outright market. Therefore, if Turkey's outright price is correct, which I think it is, they would need to be winning this semi, to have any hope of winning the Main Event. Of the rest and the possible qualifiers, here are my thoughts:

Definite Qualifiers

Turkey - Say no more
Bosnia - Strong song, geographical vote, good draw
Iceland - Nice ballad, attractive singer, ew claims to win semi
Armenia - Ok song, geographical vote will see it through

Probable Qualifiers

Montenegro - Dark horses for a top three in this semi, should qualify, very tough draw
Finland - Should have enough in what is a weak semi
Sweden - Eurovision pedigree will probably see them through, just
Romania - Again, ok song, but song but geographical vote should see it through

Left in limbo

Malta - Not convinced by this one, could struggle, although good draw
Portugal - Normally struggle, particularly with no real allies, tough to back or lay
Switzerland - Should qualify but with Turkey to follow in the draw, could be overlooked
Israel - Politics has hurt them in this contest and could strike again
Belgium - Catchy song and they could cause a shock. Could easy qualify at odds-against

The Strugglers

Czech Republic - Just can't see this coming through, very bad draw
Bulgaria - Poor song, poor draw, when people often switch off, could struggle
Belarus - Tough to qualify, especially without the aid of the Russians/Ukrainians/Latvians/Lithuanians to help
Andorra - No real chance for them in this line-up
Macedonia - Best chance of all of these, but still a big ask to qualify

No matter how much logic one tries to apply to the Eurovision, you have to remember that bloc-voting is part of parcel of the Eurovision, particularly evident at the semi- final stage, when Eastern European nations dominate the entries. Interestingly enough though, it appears that most ex-Soviet nations have ended up in the second semi, which makes it very tough for the few that are in this one.

Turkey are certainly value to win this semi and I would back Iceland to qualify, if you are getting anything from [1.4] - [1.5]. Next week I will analyse the second semi and see how the Baltic nations should fare.