Eurovision Song Contest / Chicken Dinner / 08 May 2009 / 2 Comments

With the final just over a week away, Chicken Dinner negotiate a minefield of allegiances as they look for clues as to which 10 nations will make it to the final...

Eurovision the first semi-final (May 12)

Overall Eurovision favourites Norway [2.94 on Betfair] may have gained even more supporters throughout Europe this week after their referee Tom Henning Ovrebo helped deny Chelsea a place in the Champions League final. However, Alexander Rybak and his violin take a backseat on Tuesday as 18 of Norway's rivals (it was supposed to be 19 but Georgia's entry was pulled for attacking Vladimir Putin) battle to secure one of the 10 final places up for grabs in the first semi.

Last week we were rather harsh on Turkey's entry, implying that all Dum Tek Tek has going for it is singer Hadise's looks and sultry dance routine (Hadise is the Beyonce of Turkey). However, Turkey stand a great chance of winning the first semi-final ([1.05] to qualify, [2.82] to win it) because they have somehow avoided all of the other nations making up the top six in the betting.

The UK progress automatically (thanks to our TV money), while Norway, Greece, Azerbaijan and Ukraine all take part in the second semi. Turkey have never failed to qualify and will be pleased to know that automatic qualifiers Germany - the country which historically gives them the most points - and the UK - the country they give the most points to - are both voting on this semi-final and may look to keep them sweet ahead of the final.

Bosnia and Herzegovina [1.08 to qualify] chose their Kaiser Chief lookalikes Regina without public input and should maintain their perfect qualification record. Very similar in sound to their third place in 2007 and Serbia's runner up in 2004, this is a perfect piece of Balkan pop. They have been drawn to perform last and the acts who closed the show in the 2008 semis - Greece and Portugal - finished first and second in them.

Another country which could benefit from the draw are Malta [1.24], whose singer Chiara the Alison Moyet of Malta - finished second in 2005 with Angel. She should qualify for the final comfortably and will be pleased about being drawn 17th because last year five of the closing six performers in the first semi reached the final, compared with just one the first six.

The other countries hoping to benefit from late draws are Portugal [1.63], Finland [1.45], Romania [1.76] and FYR Macedonia [2.8]. All of those bar Macedonia are in the top ten of the qualifying betting but they could be the surprise package. Their rock song Neshto shto ke ostane by Next Time is pretty mental and should prove rather memorable as they follow some slower entries. They have also been leading the drinking in Moscow. Finland have gone for the slightly naff, 2Unlimited-style white rap approach in an attempt to complicate things for themselves.

Iceland [1.3] have failed to qualify in three of the last four years, but it's unthinkable that they will miss out again. Is It True? is one of the better ballads in this year's competition and is sung beautifully by attractive 18-year-old Yohanna. Armenias song Jan Jan [1.25] is zany and shouty and could ruin their perfect qualification record. Israel [2.66] will only make the final if Europe fails to tire of hearing the lyric, "There must be another way," tediously repeated for three minutes.

Switzerland [1.73] and Belgium's [2.98] neutrality comes at a price - nobody bothers voting for them. Belgium have also foolishly gone for an Elvis impersonator. The Swiss' credible rock entry is more deserving of a final berth than Sweden's opera song La Voix [1.35] but the four-time winners always qualify and their history will probably carry them through again.

Andorra [4.2], Czech Republic (they dress as animals on stage) [5.5] and Montenegro [2.42] have never qualified while Bulgaria [3.15] and Belarus [3.15] have only ever made the cut once. The main Belarus-related point of intrigue in this year's contest will be whether they give 12 points to Russia in the final for the sixth year running or to Norway, whose entrant Rybak was born in Minsk.