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Dancing on Ice - Aggie's been swept away, is Rusedski next?

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Our resident Reality TV specialist ChickenDinner laments the end of that special early phase of the competition, known affectionately as the 'Bambi on Ice' stage. But who are the contenders now we're left with the people who are relatively nimble on skates?

At this stage; four weeks in and with a little experience under the skaters' belts, the likelihood of anyone leaving their teeth in the ice recedes, and with it the appeal of the weaker skaters to the more sadistic members of the ITV teatime audience. Even the loyal voters who were smitten with Aggie MacKenzie's good-natured personality (and, of course, her all important role as the skater most likely to hit the ground hard at any moment) finally grew bored of her inelegant slithering at the weekend and threw her off. So Greg Rusedski, [2.0] on Betfair to go, Tim Vincent, [2.0] to go, and Steve Backley, [1.7] to go, are now in trouble for the boys, Linda Lusardi, [3.0] to go, for the girls.

Thus far, the voters - and it would be a surprise to find they weren't overwhelmingly female - have displayed a shameless lack of solidarity by only kicking off lady skaters. The producers will surely be keen to redress the balance, hence the three dreadful males will be in the biggest trouble. Expect to see them set near-impossible routines this week. Gareth Gates, [3.65] on Betfair to win, and Chris Fountain, [2.2] to win, probably have enough of a nan and teenage following to keep them on the ice until the end. Plus they can both actually skate, which is a significant vote magnet on this show.

So, based on form, it should be a toss up between Rusedski (scored 13.5 at the weekend) and Backley (14.5). Both men are so lumbering and ungainly they would struggle to outclass a wardrobe sliding across the ice, but the sight of Backley throwing a childish strop during training (and hiding from the cameras) infuriated the voters enough to have him condemned to the bottom two for the second week running - one more will be three strikes, and he will be off. (No one has ever survived three bottom two appearances on this show or Strictly Come Dancing.) Rusedski's fist-pumping "USA!" persona is certainly more appealing at this stage.

The only possible upset could see Lusardi given her marching orders. Next to the younger performers, she is starting to look a little ill at ease and over-cautious on skates. A teatime audience would have no trouble throwing a former glamour model to the wolves and if she somehow finds herself up against one of the brilliant youngsters (Gates, Fountain, Shaw, Abrahams) she will be toast. It would be a close call between her and Vincent, but a hunch suggests that he would go to balance the wonky gender problem.

For all his Olympian competitive urges, Backley is still favourite for the boot next week, with Fountain to run away with it, and Suzanne Shaw, [5.6] on Betfair to win, hobbling behind with more injuries to add to the sliced up skull and shattered rib she's already boasting. Her injuries are a reminder of how disaster can befall anyone at anytime. Unlike American Idol or Big Brother, the chance of a sudden contest-ending injury hovers permanently over the contest, bringing hope and fear to the outsiders in equal measure.