Celebrity Big Brother 2009 / The Betfair Contrarian / 15 January 2009 / Leave a comment

The Contrarian, as you may have noticed, is all about the little guy. So you'd have thought I'd be all over Verne Troyer to win Big Brother. But if there's one thing I love more than little guys it's outsiders, and Mini-Me is the [1.79] favourite on Betfair to win this year's Celebrity Big Brother. So sorry Verne, love your movies, hate your chances. Here's why...

Early favourites haven't done well in recent years

Verne has been the favourite to win this series of Celebrity Big Brother since the line-up was first announced but the early frontrunner hasn't won in recent years. Jeremy Edwards was favourite after the launch in series three only to finish fourth and Michael Barrymore was the bookmakers' choice at the start of series four, but ended up second behind non-celebrity Chantelle Houghton. The joint favourites at the start of the last series flopped miserably with Leo Sayer walking after ten days and Jo O'Meara finishing eighth after unwisely falling in with Shilpa Shetty's tormentors.

Verne isn't as popular as the bookmakers think

Respected entertainment website Digital Spy asked people to vote for their favourite housemate on the afternoon of January 14, and the results don't bode well for Verne. Only 91 of the 1178 voters voted for him (7.72%), leaving him fifth in order of popularity among Digital Spy surfers. The most popular housemate according to that poll is Terry Christian [5.9 ]on Betfair, followed by La Toya Jackson [10.5], Coolio [18.0] and Ulrika Jonsson [42.0].

Terry Christian has a geographical advantage

Second favourite Terry is unmistakably Mancunian and for men in Celebrity Big Brother that has often proved a big advantage, with both of the last two male winners coming from Greater Manchester. Series two winner Mark Owen was from Oldham while series three winner Bez comes from Chorlton in Manchester.

La Toya Jackson should also put in a strong challenge

Even though the house has five men and five women, 15 of this week's 20 nominations were used on women, so the fact La Toya was the only woman not to find herself up for eviction is fairly significant in measuring her popularity in the house. Even more importantly, all ten of the men's nominations were used on women but none of them voted for La Toya, with Ulrika Jonsson being the only housemate to nominate her. The men appear to be wielding the power in the house right now so the fact she is their favourite female could help her gain a bye to the final.

Verne may be too quiet to win

While Verne has come across well so far, he hasn't received much screen time as he is overshadowed by louder personalities like Terry, Coolio and Tina Malone. It's possible to win without being too vocal when the louder housemates aren't very likable, as was the case in series four when Chantelle Houghton triumphed in a field which contained George Galloway, Pete Burns and Jodie Marsh, or in the last series when Shilpa Shetty easily overcame the loudmouths such as Jade Goody, Jack Tweed and Danielle Lloyd after they shamed themselves. In this series Terry Christian has a gob on him, but viewers have warmed to his approach.

The sympathy vote is only so powerful in the celebrity version

The importance of going on a journey and overcoming adversity to gain acceptance from the public is highlighted as an important feature of the regular Big Brother series (Nadia the transsexual, Pete the Tourette's sufferer) but it doesn't have such a powerful hold over the viewers in the celebrity version. Les Dennis garnered a lot of sympathy in the second series after breaking down in the house but that wasn't enough for him to overcome the relatively bland Mark Owen in the final, while in series four Michael Barrymore was making his emotional TV comeback but was forced to settle for second place behind Chantelle.