Celebrity Big Brother Betting: Can anybody beat Alex?

Celebrity Big Brother / Alan Dudman / 29 January 2010 / Leave a Comment

"Unfortunately for us, we cannot back someone at [1.34] who traded at 60 times the price two weeks ago."

The Alex onslaught shows no signs of abating as we approach tonight's final. So what should we do with his short price? And where did it all go wrong for Vinnie? Alan Dudman selects the best and final bets...

Quite amazing stuff from Big Brother this week, not so the ludicrous entry of Davina dressed as a chicken (yawn yawn tedious tedious), but the stack of money that has
come in for Alex Reid. Nothing else matters in the markets for the Friday night final, with
the cagefighter dominating everything - so much so that he is now [1.38] to win it. And
well done to the person/people that got matched at [60.00].

So the end is nigh, and I think just about all the right people have lasted until the final night - perhaps Jonas being the only surprise. The question is what do we do with the price on Reid? In his defence, he's been a pretty decent guy throughout the competition
and hasn't really had a bad word to say about anyone. Vinnie, on the other hand, (who was
matched as low as [1.50]) has seemingly blown his chance. It was in the bag for the hard man, but the constant sniping and domineering of anything has led to his downfall. Would I still back him at that price? No. He is huge at [10.00].

I can only assume the public have come for Alex as a show of solidarity against Jordan. Remember, this was the woman who was publically loathed in I'm A Celebrity, was put up for every single trial before she cried enough. Alex, meanwhile, is a different matter, and I think he is liked by all those phone voters. Unfortunately for us, we cannot back someone at [1.34] having traded at 60 times the price two weeks ago. No one can
get involved at that price - no matter how much the public like him (we think). His presence
on screen over the last two days - in particular Thursday night's show - showed him in
an excellent light. The editing has been kind, he was all over the programme, and that's
why he is [1.38].

Vinnie was nailed on to get to the final three, but now available in the winner market at about [10.00] means the public have finally had enough. It leaves Dane Bowers as the only alternative. If you back him at about [7.8] to win, you will have a decent chance to trade out or just let him go in a shootout with Alex, but his chances of usurping Alex are minimal.

Jonas represents the best value in terms of a trading option. Get him at [17.00] now, as I think (again with some good positive editing the last two days) that he can make it to the top three. I would also back him at [1.88] for top three market.

Stephanie Beacham [29.00] has gone off the boil - any tactics on her to go first would be the canny play.

Suggested bets: Back Jonas (back to lay) at [17.00] to win
Back Jonas in top three market @ [1.88]
Back 1st Alex/ 2nd Dane @ [2.32] in forecast