Big Brother 11 / Chicken Dinner / 18 June 2008 /

Kathreya's bubblegum will come unstuck as awkward discoveries prime journeyman Luke for win, says Andy Clerkson

This Friday, angry Alex [330.0] to win on Betfair will be thrown to the wolves, no doubt leaving Mario [120.0] on the inside, inflating his own ego as he talks of fan bases, insisting that Ant and Dec's votes kept him in. They are, after all, his best friends. Only a head-to-head with the increasingly awful Dennis [110.0] could spare the deluded bruiser eviction next time around. Don't get too comfortable, Mario.

As for the winners, it's turning into a two horse race. In one corner is Kathreya [3.6], in the other Luke [4.8]. Kathreya has taken an early lead, thanks to the nation's delight at watching a kindly foreign lady struggle valiantly with the English language (he/she Nadia - winner, series five - had a similar problem). She seems jolly and generous too, but her shtick might soon start to grate - after all, what kind of world would this be if you could just sit there in a giant romper suit shouting "cookies" over and over again to win Big Brother? It takes a little bit more than that. Even Brian Belo (winner, last year) showcased moments of introspection, and very nearly managed actual depth. Like last year's twins, Sam and Amanda, Kathreya adds bubblegum comedy to the house, making her a probable finalist, but an unlikely winner. The winner needs a journey.

And of all the contenders in there, Luke already looks primed for the all-important voyage of self-discovery. He has the same awkward demeanor as the likes of Glyn (runner up, series seven) and Eugene (runner up, series six), but with added wit - he has already forged a bizarre double act with brainless Rebecca. Big Brother winners tend to win because they seem genuine and kind (Craig, series one; Cameron, series four; Pete, series seven), or because they're funny (Brian, series two; Kate, series three; Nadia, series five; Brian, series eight). The only exception was Anthony (series six), who won because he was the lesser of a million idiots. Luke would make for another funny winner.

Of course, there is plenty of time for that to change. Brian took a few weeks to warm up last year, as did Nadia in series five. So, it would be wise to keep a close eye on other possible journeymen, like Darnell [12.5], Mohamed [50.0] and Rachel [16.0]. All have the right balance of cheerfulness, humility and intrigue to spring a surprise. While Rex [19.5], Jennifer [36.0] and Dale [28.0] should fare well without winning the thing. The latter three lack what Simon Cowell would call the "likeability factor", especially Dale, who appears to be constantly struggling with the fact that his tongue is clearly to immense for his mouth. He seems to be in a sexual rage and will explode at some point rendering him no chance of winning.

One man who has thrown it all away was the early leader Michael [9.0]. He had it all - the thrilling disability (Pete Bennett, winner, series seven), the whole 'being Scottish' thing (Cameron Stout, winner, series four) - but no one wants to watch a bitter blind gentleman bitching about his fellow guests, hence his appeal has gone into freefall. He won't win.

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