Big Brother 11 / Eliot Pollak / 27 October 2011 /

No-one watches Big Brother any more except for the very committed fans, says Eliot Pollak, and that could be the reason hot favourite Alex misses out

Five is rarely associated with broadcasting prescient, ground-breaking television, but for producers of the 'struggling' X Factor, a dark and worrying glimpse into the future has been available on everyone's favourite fifth channel this week. Whereas once young guys and gals queued like starving children outside a UN van to enter Britain's most famous house, now they are simply desperate to get out.

Jemma's decision to walk from the house before she was pushed has put this week's eviction in jeopardy. (It also triggered a hasty rewrite of this eviction prediction piece!) As things stand, there won't be one. But should Big Brother decide to throw another inmate out of the door, it is fairly safe to say it won't be Aaron.

That young man's stock has risen dramatically in recent days, despite some worryingly diva-ish behaviour - reacting badly to a telling off from his girlfriend's mum by yo-yoing in and out of the diary room and demanding to leave. He heads the top male market, and is now pushing Alex hard to win the whole thing at [3.1].

Yet, the whole "I want to go home. No I don't. Can I go home?" schtick tends to wear pretty thin with voters, who demand that their reality idols at least be happy to be there. To his credit, he does at least seem to be aware of this.

Alex is still the one to beat, thanks to her sweet, but vanilla personality. The big question for punters with these types however, is if that many people would pick up a telephone to save her? There's already been an upset in the celebrity spin-off, and lightning could well strike twice. Keep an eye on the rest of the pack, and we still recommend a lay in the win market at [2.02].

Jay and Harry are effectively the other two realistic winners, and could make for interesting bets. With the move to FIVE, it is harder to decipher exactly who makes up the viewing demographic - the dead-sea level figures suggest that all that remains are dedicated Big Brother fans only. You know - the kind of people who say things like "I've watched it since Day One," after which you make your excuses and head to the loos.

These kind of boffins know to keep the interesting ones in, and to toss the idiots out. Harry, in particular could pose an outside threat. The Celebrity show found punters embracing gypsies; the standard incarnation could find the other end of the gene pool lovingly embraced.

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