Big Brother 9 Betting: First Eviction

Big Brother 11 / Chicken Dinner / 09 June 2008 / Leave a Comment

Chicken Dinner foresee turmoil in the house as a fake wedding reveals first candidates for eviction.

There was early turmoil as the first four residents into the house found themselves forced into a typically crass fake marriage scenario to earn immunity from eviction. They needn't have bothered. So inept were their attempts to convey anything other than bewilderment that even the slowest housemates smelled a rat by the time the "bride" tottered in to the sounds of Celine Dion. Mario, Stephanie, Lisa and Luke all face eviction this week, and a premature end to their fragile dreams of celebrity.
The Betfair first eviction currently has Stephanie (the "bride") at [1.57] to be the first out, followed by the "groom" Mario at [3.25], his real life partner (although probably not for long) Lisa at [5.1] and chirpy northern teetotaller Luke at [25.0]
Although there are still a few days to go for the victims to mend their reputations, or further wreck them, as is more likely, the Betfair eviction markets last year correctly forecast the evictee from the moment the nominations were announced without exception. Moreover, in all eight series of Big Brother, a woman has been the first person evicted and all signs point to that pattern being repeated, as Stephanie made the following mistakes:

• Being given an early task is normally a terrific opportunity to establish your personality and get a head start on the rabble with potential voters. However, she only managed to establish the fact that she is moody and miserable.
• She didn't perform the task with anything like the brio and enthusiasm required to win voters over. The public expects nothing less than 100 per cent commitment at this stage.
• She talked herself up too much in her video, boasting about how she almost got into Girls Aloud, and clearly thinks she's very beautiful. If there's anything young women - the key voting demographic - cannot abide, it's a snotty princess.

Before Shabnam was first out last year, for severely testing the house's irritation threshold, the first girl out has tended to be shown the door for being dull, so there's a slim chance Lisa might get the nod. Rather than being dreary though, she's been anonymous, and has endured the humiliation of the task with a certain grim acceptance. The main reason for voting her out, from the voters' perspective at least, would be to break up the couple for purely mischievous reasons.

There may be a little more value in the First Week Walkout market. There have been two previous first week "lemme outs", Sunita in series three and Shahbaz in series seven, and one candidate, the aggressive and charmless Alexandra seems particularly unsuited for a long and happy series. The chances of her ever receiving the "respect" to which she clearly feels herself entitled are slim to none, and she's got the right sort of hair-trigger personality to demand that the doors be unlocked without further ado. You can get [3.05] that there will be a first week walkout on Betfair, [1.02] that there won't.