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Why are Wales such a big price when they're at home?

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Betfair's rugby expert Tony Calvin previews Australia's trip to the Millenium Stadium

WALES have been under-estimated for this match and, at the very least as a trading angle, the 5.3 on Betfair about them beating Australia has to be taken.

A fascinating aside to this match is that the team who wins probably has the "prize" of being in New Zealand's half of the draw in the last-eight stage, which has led some to believe that both sides won't be off!!

Of course, this is nonsense, especially as the runner-up will probably have to face South Africa in the quarter-finals.

But I don't think there is any doubt whatsoever that the 5.3 in the outright market and the 2.16 on Betfair about Wales +9.5 represent decent value, indeed. One bookmaker is offering Wales +12, and that is obviously very tempting, too.

Wales are clearly massively advantaged by the fact that this game is being played in Cardiff, so I can't see why the markets are so pitched in Australia's favour.

Yes, they showed they were on a steep upward curve (from a pretty low starting point) when beating New Zealand in the Tri-Nations and their three-quarters looked in rude health when putting Japan to the second-half sword 91-3 in the opening match.

But doubts persist about their scrummage, so the Welsh front row can probably rest easy there, and just as well because they aren't great shakes there.

For Wales to win, their line-out has to be function, and their back five have to step up to the plate in the loose and get some go-forward for the backs to exploit. That could be too much of an ask, but there is plenty of world class talent in the back line (and on the bench) to dig them out of trouble if and when the need arises.

Australia may have won the last match between these sides 31-0 in the Suncorp Stadium in June, but their other recent meetings strongly point to Wales being a stand-out price here.

Only a last-play Wallaby try saw them win the first Test 29-23 in June, and the last two meetings between the sides at the Millennium Stadium have resulted in a 29-29 draw (in 2006) and a 24-22 win (in 2005).