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Wales won't let Japan off the Hook

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Betting experts Chicken Dinner explain why history suggests Wales should cover the 36.5 point handicap

Japan vs Wales, Rugby World Cup, Wednesday September 20, Pool B, Cardiff
Japan + 36.5 points

Current IRB World Rankings as of September 17, Wales 8, Japan 18

It can't be easy being a Welsh rugby player. Unlike in England, where only people in jumbo mustard cords and Barbours are really bothered by the national fifteen's progress, in Wales, they follow their scary skinhead representatives with equally scary intensity.

Also unlike in England, Wales only has a tiny population to draw on, something of a handicap when every house and bar in the land is screaming for far larger countries to be brought to their knees. But every so often the pendulum swings the other way, and the fixture list pairs Wales with a side that has an immense population, but not 15 decent rugby players anywhere amongst them. Such a team is Japan, and little old Wales find themselves conceding a rather intimidating 36.5 point handicap. (You can get Japan +36.5 points on betfair at 1.81 and Wales -36.5 points on betfair at 2.08.)

On the six occasions that the two sides have met, Wales have walked off victorious all six times and the few Japanese people who care about rugby doubtless still wince at the memory of the last meeting, back in 2004, when Wales crushed them 98-0. Wales have smashed through the 50 points barrier in every meeting, with two of these coming in World Cup competition. In both of those matches Wales would have covered a 36.5 point handicap (57-10 in 1995 and 64-15 in 1999.)

The Japanese, who have lost a dispiriting 17 out of 18 games in the World Cup, have blundered to six World Cup defeats by this sort of gulf before. Before this tournament the Japanese coach John Kirwan announced that he wanted his side to be the fittest team in the world, presumably so they could keep chasing aimlessly after the Australians for the full 80 minutes.

Japan, though, with the exception of the 1995 tournament, haven't lost more than one game in a World Cup tournament by this margin. They displayed their eagerness to prevent it happening here by rallying after Australia flattened them 91-3 in their first game to lose by just 35-31 against Fiji. Now their objective is to keep Wales on a bit of a leash, to give themselves a realistic chance of beating Canada in their last group match for the title of Least Bad Nation Where No one Cares About Rugby in Pool B.

Though the Welsh have handed out two World Cup thrashings to the Japanese, their other 13 World Cup wins have been tight affairs that would not have troubled this handicap. Recent Welsh form will also give the Japanese hope that an abacus will not be needed to keep track of the score.

Prior to the World Cup, Wales had won just twice in their last 10 matches, against Argentina and England (the latter win looking less and less impressive, with each increasingly hapless England World Cup performance). Wales are also planning to bring in at least ten changes from the Australia game as they look to preserve themselves for Fiji on September 29. Yet perhaps the least dramatic performance of all will be by the nation's headline writers, who will be sleepless with excitement at the thought of being able to write "Wales harpoon Japan." Ha, ha, ha.