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Tuqiri to query Fiji's 32.5 point start

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Betting experts Chicken Dinner look ahead to Australia's clash with Fiji

Australia vs Fiji, Rugby World Cup, Sunday September 23, Pool B, Montpellier
Fiji + 32.5 pts

IRB World Rankings as of September 17, 2007: Australia 2, Fiji 11

"You hear that sound Mr.Anderson? That is the sound of inevitability..." said Agent Smith to Neo in the Matrix. And he wasn't trying to cheer him up. To the Fijians, that sound of inevitability might resemble the Australians steaming forth faster than the Eurostar with the man at the controls in a record-breaking mood. Not only do Fiji face the arduous task of being run over by the world's second best team, they also have to do it while keeping both eyes on next week's far more important tie with Wales. That's when they'll find out if they are going to make it to the quarter finals for the first time since 1987. Australia aren't likely to be too sensitive to Fiji's predicament, however. In this sort of situation they tend to make lions gorging on the bloody corpse of a Thompson's gazelle look picky. (You can get Fiji -32.5 points on betfair at 2.32, Australia + 32.5 points on betfair at 1.51).

This will be the first time the Wallabies have faced Fiji in the Rugby World Cup, but it's unlikely they'll be quaking in their Uggs - the last time they lost to Fiji was 53 years ago. More recently, in June, Fiji showed how they were still no closer to bringing that unfortunate streak to an end when they lost 49-0. The meeting before that, in September 1998 ended 66-20, both games in which Australia comfortably covered a 32.5 point spread. New Zealand have also had no problem bridging that gap in three games with Fiji over the last ten years (91-0, 68-18 and 75-5). Australia don't play Fiji often, but against the team with whom Fiji recently switched places in the rankings, Scotland, Australia are extraordinarily consistent, their last ten scores being: 44-15, 31-17, 31-14, 34-13, 35-15, 33-16, 30-9, 33-11, 45-3 and 37-8, in only one of which they covered the handicap.

Perhaps a better indication of what is going to happen is the involvement of second stringers - not just on Fiji's part but on Australia's. When back up players get involved in later games toward the end of the pool stage is often when big sides go on their spectacular point-scoring benders. The best example is biggest individual point scorer in a single World Cup game Simon Culhane, with 45 of New Zealand's 145 against Japan in 1995, yet who barely ever played for the All Blacks again, when the first choice kicker came back into the side.

Another clanging bell of doom for the Fijians can be heard in a comment from one of their own Fijian-born Lote Tuqiri (but who plays for Australia), who says "Fiji are always unpredictable. It's whether they turn up (mentally)." Lote, generously, thinks they will. But with nothing but pride riding on the Australia game, mentally the Fijians are unlikely to get off the bus.